Tip-Off: 8:00 PM CT
Location: Chesapeake Energy Arena (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)
Spread: Pelicans (-8.5)
Pelicans/Thunder Trends Against The Spread
|28-34 (45%)||29-33 (46%)|
|13-16 (44%) on the road||10-20 (33%) at home|
|11-21 (34%) as a favorite||27-33 (45%) as an underdog or pick|
|5-7 (41%) as a road favorite||9-20 (31%) as a home underdog|
|Head To Head|
|1-1 (50%)||1-1 (50%)|
Pelicans/Thunder Trends Against The Total
OKC is 30-31-1 against the over this season.
New Orleans is 38-23-1 against the over this season.
The Thunder are hitting the over 63% of the time at home.
The Pelicans are hitting the over 55% of the time on the road.
This game is going to be all about Zion Williamson and how Oklahoma City is able to defend him. Averaging 26.8 points per game on 61.6% shooting from the floor Williamson is going to be a force under the basket as he has been all season. That said, if Williamson goes off tonight it may not be the worst thing for the Thunder. He only scored 12 points in New Orleans’ blowout win the first time the two met this season. In the second meeting he posted 29 points as the Pelicans fell to Oklahoma City by a point.
As a consolation keep an eye on Lonzo Ball because he has big game potential in this spot tonight as well. Ball is averaging 14.2 points per game, and dishing out 5.8 assists, this season. He’s averaged 15.5 points per game against OKC this season.
For Oklahoma City this is a game where I think Darius Bazley can have a big night. He only scored 7 points in the first meeting this season but went off for 20 the second time around. I strongly tonight will more closely resemble game two than game one.
I’d also buy some stock in Theo Maledon tonight as well.
Game 1 | New Orleans 113 – Oklahoma City 80
Game 2 | Oklahoma City 111 – New Orleans 110
Why The Thunder Won’t Cover
I’ve got to be honest, I’m not really sure where Oklahoma City is right now in terms of finishing out this season. I bought into the idea that they were in full on tank mode but then they beat Boston two days ago. Now the question is, how will they respond to winning? Do they go back in the tank or do they try to ride a wave of momentum? My belief is that they head back into the tank.
Regardless they’ve been terrible against the spread at home this season, only covering 33% of the time. As a home underdog that drops to 31%. They’re 1-1 against the Pelicans this season (both on the scoreboard and against the spread) but they’re only covering 46% of the time following a day off.
Why The Game Will Hit The Over (229.5)
The Pelicans are pretty consistent at hitting the over this season and Oklahoma City’s propensity to disappear defensively is what is going to push me towards taking the over tonight. Even on the road New Orleans is hitting the over 55% of the time and the Thunder are going over the total 63% of the time at home. That’s a good match for tonight if you’re looking how to play this. Those percentages are exactly the same between these two teams when the Pelicans are playing against an opponent on the road that averages greater than 102 points per game allowed and when the Thunder are playing at home under the same circumstances.
On The Season
I lost on all accounts with the Boston game on Tuesday. Not good for the percentages!!!!
Against the Spread: 14-19 Last Pick: Philadelphia (-11.5) vs. OKC
Over/Under: 18-15 Last Pick: Philadelphia/OKC over (219.5)
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