Thunder Against the Spread | Prepare Yourself For a Low-Scoring Game

Tip-Off: 6:00 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Dallas (-4)

Total: 207.5

Mavericks/Thunder Trends Against The Spread

10-15 (40%) Overall15-10 (60%) Overal
7-6 (53%) on the road7-5 (58%) at home
6-7 (46%) as a favorite14-9 (60%) as an underdog
Location Status
3-1 (75%) as a road favorite6-4 (60%) as a home underdog
Head To Head
0-0 (-%)0-0 (-%)

Mavericks/Thunder Trends Against The Total

  • OKC is hitting the over 40% of the time this season.
  • The Mavericks are hitting the over 39% of the time this season.
  • The Thunder are 5-7 against the over at home.
  • Dallas is 6-7 against the over on the road.

Team Stats

DAL103.8105.644.34322.347.3L 13-7
 OKC99.1108.441.245.820.24.87.4L 12-8

Key Players

Luka Doncic is sitting for the Mavericks so that’s a little more than 25 points per game on the bench for the Mavs. That puts forward Kristaps Porzingis into a greater spotlight. He’s averaging 19.6 points per game this season while shooting 45.7% from the floor. Most recently he scored 22 points in Friday’s loss at Indiana while shooting 52.9%. Afterwards he talked about how the Mavs are in a pretty bad place.

The Lakers ended Oklahoma City’s two-game winning streak on Friday night thanks in part to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander being limited to jusy 11 points. He’ll be a focal point for the Mavericks as well due to his team-high 21.4 points per game for OKC. It’s a pretty simple recipe for the Thunder, when he scores high the odds of OKC winning are high. In back-to-back wins against Detroit and Toronto last week he scored 30 and 26 points.

Lu Dort is shooting 42.4% from the floor for OKC and rookie Josh Giddy is averaging 5.9 assists per game.

Series History

This is the first meeting of the season. Since arriving in Oklahoma City in 2008, the Thunder is 24-21 against the Mavericks in the regular season (15-9 at home, 9-12 on the road) and 9-5 in the playoffs (4-3 at home, 5-2 on the road).

Why the Thunder Will Cover (+4)

OKC is fresh off a blowout loss to the Lakers at home on Friday, and the Thunder has the ability to bounce back with a better performance, especially considering the fact that Luka Doncic is resting for the evening. Taking into consideration that OKC is 15-8 against the spread when playing with a day of rest, I feel pretty good about the Thunder covering and possibly even winning this matchup with Dallas.

Staff Picks

Why The Game Won’t Hit The Over (207.5)

When in doubt, take the under if the Thunder is playing. OKC has the lowest scoring offense in the league, and they rarely cover the point total. 207.5 is a pretty low point total for an NBA game, but the Dallas Mavericks are 27th in the league in scoring, not much better than the Thunder. All of the trends for these two teams point to a low-scoring affair this evening, so why deviate from the norm?

On the Season


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