Thunder Against the Spread | Wrong Team Could Be Favored Tonight Against New Orleans

Tip-Off: 7:00 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: New Orleand (-4.5)

Total: 211.5

Pelicans/Thunder Trends Against The Spread

12-17 (41%) Overall15-11 (57%) Overall
5-11 (31%) on the road7-6 (53%) at home
1-2 (33%) as a favorite14-10 (58%) as an underdog
Location Status
0-1 (0%) as a road favorite6-5 (54%) as a home underdog
Head To Head
0-1 (0%)1-0 (100%)

Pelicans/Thunder Trends Against The Total

  • OKC is hitting the over 38% of the time this season.
  • The Pelicans are hitting the over 37% of the time this season.
  • The Thunder are 5-8 against the over at home.
  • New Orleans is 5-11 against the over on the road.

Team Stats

NO103.7109.943.246.324.34.17.6L 15-5
 OKC98.5108.24145.620.24.97.3L 22-8

Key Players

Brandon Ingram leads New Orleans in two key categories, scoring 22.9 points per game while also dishing out 4.9 assists. In the absence of Zion Williamson Ingram has emerged as the team leader and seems more than willing to be up to the challenge. Over the last five games he has averaged 26.6 points per game, including a 40-point effort against Houston on December 5th.

Center Jonas Valanciunas is averaging a double-double this season (18.7 points & 11.9 rebounds) while shooting 51.5% from the floor.

The Thunder will be without Lu Dort tonight but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 24.8 points per game over the last five. He was held to 11 last Friday against the Lakers but came back with 18 against the Mavericks.

Josh Giddy is averaging 5.8 assists per game for the Thunder this season.

Series History

Game 1 | OKC 108 – New Orleans 100

Why the Thunder Will Cover (+4.5)

Look, I know that things haven’t gone well for OKC recently but the Pelicans have been awful on the road this season. New Orleans is allowing opponents to score 109.9 points per game on the road while only producing 100.9 points of offense themselves. The Pelicans have only covered the spread five times on the road this season and failed to cover the one time they were a road favorite. When playing following a day off the Pelicans are covering the spread just 39% of the time, while the Thunder are covering 59% of the time after a day off.

Taking all of that into consideration, plus the fact that OKC was 8 points better that the Pelicans when the two teams met up in New Orleans last month, you could make a strong argument that the wrong team is favored tonight.

Staff Picks

Why The Game Won’t Hit The Over (211.5)

If you’ve followed these posts this season then you know my saying, “taking the under on the Thunder is the safest bet in sports.” That’s certainly true again tonight as both of these teams have shown strong desires not to win this season. I would expect the action to heat up early and then taper off through the second half in this one.

If you’re looking for stats and trends to support taking the under then consider that both teams hit the over less than 50% of the time. OKC hits the over 38% of the time and New Orleans 37% of the time. That percentage drops to 31% when the Pelicans take to the road. The Thunder hit the over 31% of the time following a day off and the Pelicans hit it 39% of the time following a day off. In the previous between these two teams this season they failed to hit the over.

On the Season


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