Tip-Off: 7:00 PM CT
Location: Paycom (OKC)
Spread: Denver (-6)
Nuggets/Thunder Trends Against The Spread
|13-16 (44%) Overall||18-11 (62%) Overall|
|7-9 (43%) on the road||9-6 (60%) at home|
|6-7 (46%) as a favorite||17-10 (63%) as an underdog or pick|
|2-2 (50%) as a road favorite||8-5 (61%) as a home underdog|
|Head To Head|
|0-0 (0%)||0-0 (0%)|
Nuggets/Thunder Trends Against The Total
- OKC is hitting the over 37% of the time this season.
- The Nuggets are hitting the over 58% of the time this season.
- The Thunder are 6-9 against the over at home.
- Denver is 11-5 against the over on the road.
Center Nikola Jokic is the primary guy that Denver relies on and with good reason. On the year Jokic is averaging 26.3 points, 13.5 rebounds and 7.5 assists per game so it’s natural that he’s at the center of the conversation (see what I did there?) when the Nuggets are the topic. However, the guy I’m tagging to be the pain in OKC’s side tonight is small forward Will Barton. Averaging 15.6 points per night, Barton is second on the Nuggets roster in scoring and is due for a big night after back-to-back subpar performances against Minnesota and Atlanta last week.
Lu Dort has been surging recently for the Thunder. He shot 63.2% from the floor, on his way to a 29-point effort, against the Clippers on Saturday night but it was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who game up with the big shot that night. Monday night SGA led OKC to their second consecutive win with a 23-point performance at Memphis. He’s the guy to keep an eye on tonight against the Nuggets with his team best 21.6 points per game average.
Dort is shooting a team best 42.7% from the floor and rookie Josh Giddy is delivering 6.2 assists per game.
First meeting of the season.
Why the Thunder Will Cover (+6)
The numbers strongly support an OKC cover tonight even though the spread is pretty thin at -6. The Nuggets are actually being outscored on the road by an average of 2.2 points. Denver is only covering the spread 43% of the time on the road this season and the Thunder have an impressive 61% cover rate as a home underdog this season. When playing after a day off Oklahoma City covers the spread 64% of the time.
It’s not just the numbers that are favoring the Thunder, it’s also their play on the field. Winning back-to-back games against the Clippers and the Grizzlies has them in a good spot as Denver comes in with a very similar record.
Why the Game Will Hit the Over (212.5)
For this game to hit the over then Denver is going to have to carry the pace. I believe there’s a strong possibility that happens which will not only make this a fun game but also a late over. The Nuggets hit the over 68% of the time this season and 54% of the time following a day off. When the total is between 211 and 214 OKC hits the over 66% of the time. This game should be around a 214 total points finish, at the minimum, which means it’ll be close but definitely an over.
On the Season
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