Tip-Off: 7 PM CT
Location: FTX Arena (Miami, Florida)
Spread: Heat (-16.0)
Thunder/Heat Trends Against The Spread
|41-25-3 (62%)||40-30-1 (57%)|
|23-11 (67%) on the road||18-16 (52%) at home|
|40-24-3 (62%) as underdog or pick||24-25 (49%) as favorite|
|23-11 (67%) as road underdog||14-16 (46%) as home favorite|
|Head To Head|
|0-1 (0%)||1-0 (100%)|
Thunder/Heat Trends Against The Total
- OKC is hitting the over 49% of the time this season.
- The Heat are hitting the over 58% of the time this season.
- The Thunder is 15-19 against the over on the road.
- Miami is 18-15-1 against the over at home.
The Heat defeated the Thunder in Oklahoma City 103-90 on November 15, 2021.
Why the Thunder Will Cover (+16.0)
OKC trailed by 16 against the Spurs on Wednesday, but they roared back cover the 10-point spread (and nearly won the game). Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is once again questionable with a sore ankle, so that’s likely the reason for the larger than normal spread, but Miami is a dangerous team regardless. Still, I’m taking OKC to cover because 16 points is an abnormally large spread, even for a tanking team.
Why the Game Will Hit the Over (217.5)
The Thunder has hit the over consistently lately when the point total has been around 230, so tonight’s point total comes as a bit of a surprise. At the same time, Miami has one of the best defenses in the league, so it’s understandable that OKC isn’t expected to score a ton. I’m still thinking this game goes over 218, though, as the Heat have allowed over their season average 104.7 points per game in 7 of their 11 games since returning from All-Star Weekend, including 6 of their last 8.
On the Season