After taking it on the chin a little bit last week, we’re off to a fantastic start to this week. With a combined record of 6-0 for Monday and Tuesday’s games we’ve already stacked an imaginary bankroll of $43.57, by placing a pretend $10 bet on the spread, moneyline, and over/under. Hopefully we can keep it rolling for a third day in a row as we look at Atlanta (64-35) and Red Sox (54-47) tonight.
The Pitchers
Atlanta’s Spencer Strider (11-2, 3.78 ERA) is taking the bump having won three of his last five starts, with an eye-popping 53 strikeouts during that span. Strider is only allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs per game, in his last five starts, but over his last two outings he has surrendered a combined 9 runs.
Despite having a better ERA than Strider, Boston’s Brayan Bello (7-6, 3.6 ERA) has had less success in the win column. He’s allowed an average of 2.6 earned runs per game, across his last five starts, but, like Strider, he’s allowed a total of 9 earned runs in his last two outings. The primary difference between these two pitchers is in strikeouts. Bello has fanned 21 batters in his last five starts which is considerably less than his counterpart from Atlanta.
The Lineups
Matt Olson has blasted 32 home runs, and knocked in 80 RBI for the Braves, while Ronald Acuna Jr. has a .328 batting average. Atlanta has averaged 4.2 runs scored over the last five game and was held to just one run in Tuesday’s game to open the series at Boston.
The Red Sox are powered by Rafael Devers who has hit 24 home runs and knocked in 75 RBI. Masataka Yoshida paces the team with a .320 batting average. Boston has scored an average of six runs per game over the last five.
The Streaks
Boston has won three games in a row, including Tuesday’s series opener with Atlanta by a final score of 7-1.
The Odds
Braves -1.5
Braves -160 on the moneyline
O/U 10
We’re chasing underdogs today and, thanks to our bankroll, we’re doing it stress free. We’re taking Boston against the spread at +1.5 and we’re getting it at -120. The other side of this bet (Braves -1.5) is at +100 which means Vegas agrees with us and there’s a legitimate chance of an upset here. Because of that, our best bet is the Red Sox at +140 on the moneyline. I also like the under in this game at 10 runs.
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