We did it again! Yesterday we went 3-0 on our picks for the Braves/Red Sox game, making it three consecutive days of hitting all three bets. We’re placing a pretend $10 wager on each bet and currently we’re up $74.99 on the week. Hopefully we can keep that momentum going as we look at Washington (43-59) and the New York Mets (47-54) today.
The Pitchers
Mets pitcher Kodai Senga (7-5, 3.27 ERA) only went 3.1 innings in his last start. He’s picked up one win over his last five appearances, with an average of 1.6 earned runs allowed per game. He’s only gone more than six innings once in the last five starts. That came on July 5 when he went eight innings in a win at Arizona.
Washington’s Josiah Gray (7-8, 3.45 ERA) has similar season numbers to Senga. He’s failed to go past five full innings in three of his last five starts but he also has three wins over that span, averaging just 1.8 earned runs per game.
This is about as even as a pitching matchup as you’ll see on the slate today.
The Lineups
The Nationals are led in home runs by Jeimer Candelario (16), but it’s Lane Thomas who paces the team in batting average (.293) and RBI (54). Over the last five games, Washington is scoring an average of 6.6 runs per game.
For the Mets, it’s Pete Alonso leading the way with 28 home runs and 68 RBI. Brandon Nimmo leads the team with a .260 batting average. New York is averaging 4.4 runs per game over the last five.
The Streaks
Washington has won two in a row and four of its last five games.
The Odds
Mets -1.5
Mets -220 on the moneyline
O/U 9
We’re going underdogs again today! We definitely have the bankroll this week. The Nats at +1.5 is my favorite bet in this game. Despite the fact that Vegas sees them as heavy underdogs, the season stats and recent trends that this could/should be a close game. I also like Washington to win outright at +180. Like Boston last night, let’s go with an underdog who has a legitimate shot to win since we’re playing with house money at this point. Finally, I’m sticking with the under for the third night in a row.
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