Last week was awful…absolutely awful. It was the kind of week that makes me happy to not actually be a gambler. We ended the week with an 8-12-1 overall record and a -29.8% return on our investment. The good news is that we’re still hitting 64% of our MLB picks, on the season, and would have $173.30 in winnings based on placing $10 bets on all picks. The bad news is that last week was our worst week of the season. The good news is that this is a new week and we have the opportunity to start fresh, starting with Washington (61-70) at Toronto (71-60).
|July 31 – August 6||11-10||$-2.86|
|August 7 – 13||11-9-1||$-1.59|
|August 14 – 20||13-8||$31.12|
|August 21 – 27||8-12-1||$-59.51|
Washington’s Josiah Gray (7-10, 3.85 ERA) is coming off a six-inning outing against the Yankees, on August 22nd, in which he allowed just one earned run. He’s winless in his last five appearances and has allowed an average of 3 earned runs over that stretch. His six innings against New York was the most time he spent on the mound since he went six innings against the Mets on July 27.
Toronto’s Kevin Gausman (9-8, 3.23 ERA) has two wins in his last five starts, and he’s allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs per game over that stretch. He’s only made it through seven innings one time over the last five games, but bounced back from a rough outing against Philadelphia to strike out eight batters and surrender just two earned runs against Baltimore, while going six innings against Baltimore, on August 23rd.
Lane Thomas is the key to Washington’s lineup. He leads the Nationals with 20 home runs and a .283 batting average. Joey Meneses leads the team with 73 RBI. Washington has scored 18 runs over the last five games.
Vladimir Guerrero and Bo Bichette are charging the Toronto offense. Guerrero has blasted 20 home runs, with 76 RBI, and Bichette has a team-best .314 batting average. The Blue Jays have scored 15 runs over the last five games.
The Nationals have won three of their last five games, but a 2-1 loss to Miami on Sunday snapped a three-game winning streak. The Blue Jays have lost four of the last five games and are coming off a 10-7 loss to Cleveland on Sunday.
Blue Jays -1.5
Blue Jays -260 on the moneyline
Toronto is a heavy favorite here, getting -260 on the moneyline. That’s the right play, but I’m really interested in the spread here where the Nationals are getting +100 as a +1.5 underdog. Based on Toronto’s recent history, that’s a good bet to make. Neither team has been scoring very much recently, which leads me to go for the under in this one.
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