Kickoff: 11 AM CT
Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Television: ABC
Radio: Cowboy Radio Network
Twitter: Follow @HeartlandPokes for live tweets during the game
The Oklahoma State Cowboys have done the unheard of by taking a 2-2 start to the season and turning it into a 9-3 masterpiece with a berth in the Big 12 Championship. After perhaps the most embarrassing loss of Mike Gundy’s Career—a 33-3 decision at home against South Alabama—the Cowboys turned the season around by winning game after game as an underdog. Now the Cowboys face their toughest test yet as the biggest underdog that they have been all season.
The Texas Longhorns are on the cusp of making the College Football Playoff, and rightfully so after going 11-1. The lone loss—a 34-30 battle in the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma—was a narrow one, and they have a solid resume otherwise. Still, if the Longhorns do not defeat the Cowboys today, they have zero chance of making the Playoff. If they win, however, they should be considered almost automatic.
If we are honest with ourselves, we can admit that the Cowboys have the smallest chance of pulling out a win against the Longhorns. They have looked pretty inconsistent as a team the last few weeks, and if they don’t play their absolute best football today, then they could get embarrassed by 50. Still, this is a big game with high stakes, and Oklahoma State has risen to the occasion time and time again this season. Who’s to say they can’t do it again?
How the Cowboys Win
Oklahoma State has their work cut out for them. History shows that when the Cowboys take care of the ball, they have a REALLY good chance of winning the game. However, simply NOT turning the ball over likely won’t be enough to get a win in this one. Oklahoma State is probably going to need to force a couple of turnovers—and maybe even come away with a defensive touchdown—to pull off the upset for a Big 12 Championship.
How the Longhorns Win
Texas is more than a two-touchdown favorite, so they shouldn’t have to do much to win this game, right? The Longhorns really just need to be solid above all else. If they can manage to not go full meltdown, then they will probably be Big 12 Champs later this afternoon. However, there’s plenty of bad blood between these two programs, so who knows what could happen.
Odds & Predictions
Staff Score Predictions
| Craig | 49-22 Texas |
| Matt | 33-24 Texas |
| Zack | 38-28 Texas |
An Oklahoma State Win Would…
- Secure its 12th conference championship since 1926 and it first since 2011. It would also mark OSU’s second Big 12 championship.
- Give the Cowboys at least 10 wins for the eighth time in Mike Gundy’s tenure as head coach.
- Give the Cowboys wins in eight of its past nine games.
- Give the Cowboys wins in 10 of its past 14 and seven of its past nine games vs. Texas.
- Improve its record against Texas to 12-26 and it record against Texas in neutral site games to 1-1, with the only neutral site matchup prior to 2023 game coming in the first meeting of the programs, played in San Antonio, Texas, on Friday, October 13, 1916.
- Improve Mike Gundy’s record against Texas to 10-9.
- Make the Cowboys 31-11 in its past 42 games overall, dating back to the 2020 season.
- Make the Cowboys 157-73 in its history when playing as an AP-ranked team.
- Mark the Cowboys’ 12th win over an AP Top 10 team since 2008.
- Give the Cowboys wins in three straight and four of its past five games against AP Top 10 teams.
- Make the Cowboys 11-3 in its past 14 and 20-8 in its past 28 games vs. opponents ranked in the AP Top 25.
- Improve the Cowboys to 35-25 vs. AP ranked teams since the beginning of the 2011 season.
- Make the Cowboys 11-5 in its past 16 games when both teams are ranked in the AP Top 25.
- Mark Mike Gundy’s 41st career win vs. AP Top 25 opponents. Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney are the only other active coaches with more wins over AP Top 25 teams at their current schools.
Notable Streaks and Trends Entering the Game
- Ollie Gordon II has rushed for more than 100 yards in eight of the past nine games.
- Ollie Gordon II has rushed for more than 270 yards in two of the past six games.
- OSU has forced 18 turnovers and surrendered 12 turnovers in the past six games.
- OSU is 9-0 this season when winning or tying the turnover battle.
- OSU’s offensive line has not allowed a sack in five of its past eight games.
- OSU has held 34 of its past 42 Big 12 opponents under their season scoring average entering the game.
- OSU has won 85 consecutive games when holding its opponent to fewer than 20 points, dating back to Sept. 13, 2003 – the longest active stretch of time in the FBS and longest since at least 1980. Including games when opponents have scored 20 points or fewer, the streak begins at the same date and includes 92 games.
- The Cowboy defense has produced a shutout half in two games this season.
- OSU has held its opponent scoreless on its game-opening drive in 39 of its past 56 games.
- OSU has held its opponent to less than a 50% third down conversion rate in 46 of its past 50 games.
- OSU is 38-16 in its past 54 games decided by fewer than 10 points.
- OSU is 48-8 in its past 56 games when leading at halftime, dating back to Sept. 17, 2016.
- Dating back to 2005, OSU is 48-4 when not committing a turnover.
- Dating back to 2008, OSU is 80-8 when winning the turnover battle.
- OSU has won four of its past six overtime games.
- Over the past 48 games, OSU has held opponents to 226-for-742 (30.5%) on third down.
- OSU has held its opponents to just 4-of-23 on fourth down attempts this season – the No. 1 percentage in the nation