Tip-Off: 8:30 PM CT
Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)
Spread: Thunder (-4.5)
Total: 231
Trends Against The Spread
| Thunder | vs. | Mavericks |
| 14-9 (60%) | All | 14-9-1 (60%) |
| 6-4 (54%) at home | Location | 7-5-1 (58%) on the road |
| 13-9 (59%) as favorite | Status | 5-2-1 (71%) as underdog or pick |
| 6-5 (54%) as home favorite | Location Status | 4-2-1 (66%) as road underdog |
| 0-1 (0%) | Head To Head | 1-0 (100%) |
Trends Against The Total
- Oklahoma City is 11-12 (47%) against the over on the season.
- Dallas is 14-10 (58%) against the over on the season.
- The Thunder is 6-5 (54%) against the over at home.
- The Mavericks are 10-3 (76%) against the over on the road.
Team Stats (Last Season’s Stats)
| TEAM | PTS | PA | FG% | 3P% | REB | AST | TOV | STL | BLK | STRK | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 119.1 | 111.5 | 48.7 | 37.4 | 46.0 | 25.7 | 14.2 | 8.3 | 5.7 | W7 | 9-1 |
| OKC | 115.7 | 103.8 | 46.5 | 34.7 | 43.4 | 25.9 | 11.7 | 12.1 | 6.4 | W3 | 7-3 |
Injury Report
Thunder
- Ousmane Dieng (small fracture in right ring finger) is OUT.
- Adam Flagler (fractured right fourth metacarpal) is OUT.
- Chet Holmgren (fractured right iliac wing) is OUT.
- Dillon Jones (G League — on assignment) is OUT.
- Nikola Topic (left ACL surgery recovery) is OUT.
- Jaylin Williams (strained right hamstring) is OUT.
Mavericks
- Dante Exum (right wrist surgery) is OUT.
- Jaden Hardy (sprained right ankle) is OUT.
- Maxi Klieber (illness) is OUT.
- Naji Marshall (illness) is QUESTIONABLE.
- P.J. Washington (illness) is QUESTIONABLE.
- Brandon Williams (G League — two-way) is OUT.
Series History
The Thunder is 0-1 against the Mavericks so far this season (0-1 at home, 0-0 on the road).
Why the Thunder Will Cover (-4.5)
In the first meeting between these two teams, OKC didn’t have a big man, and Dallas was playing without Luka Doncic. Luka will be in action for the Mavs, and the Thunder has Isaiah Hartenstein in the starting lineup, so it should be a slightly different matchup. I think Hartenstein’s addition moves the needle more in this matchup, particularly because of OKC’s backcourt defense. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are one of the best scoring duos in the league, though, so slowing them down will be paramount to the Thunder not just winning but covering the spread. As for the Mavs on defense, I don’t think they have the ability to slow down OKC’s backcourt since they cannot simply clog the paint now that the Thunder has a talented big like Hartenstein.
Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (231)
The Mavericks have one of the best offenses in the league, and the Thunder can pour on the scoring at times as well, but I’m expecting more of a defensive battle in this one. I do think the final score will be close to the line, but I’m taking the under on the point total. If it goes over, then Dallas will probably win, so I’m taking the under because I expect OKC to win at home.
Staff Picks
On the Season
| Name | Moneyline | Spread | Over/Under |
| Matt | 15-6 | 12-9 | 12-9 |
| Zack | 18-5 | 15-8 | 13-10 |
| Craig | 17-5 | 17-4-1 | 12-10 |
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