Thunder Against the Spread | OKC a Big Favorite in Portland as Hartenstein, Joe Return to Play

Tip-Off: 5 PM CT

Location: Moda Center (Portland, Oregon)

Spread: Thunder (-13.5)

Total: 225.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	at	Blazers
29-16 (64%)	All	24-21 (53%)
13-9 (59%) on the road	Location	10-11 (57%) at home
28-15 (65%) as favorite	Status	23-18 (56%) as underdog or pick
12-8 (60%) as road favorite	Location Status	10-8 (55%) as home underdog
1-1 (50%)	Head To Head	1-1 (50%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 22-22-1 (50%) against the over on the season.
• Portland is 21-24 (46%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 9-12-1 (42%) against the over on the road.
• The Blazers are 13-8 (61%) against the over at home.

Team Stats

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
OKC	116.5	104.3	47.4	35.8	43.4	26.1	12.1	11.4	5.7	L1	7-3
POR	107.8	115.2	44.9	33.7	43.4	23.1	16.3	8.1	5.7	W4	5-5

Injury Report

Thunder

• Luguentz Dort (right knee soreness) is OUT.
• Chet Holmgren (fractured right iliac wing) is OUT.
• Dillon Jones (G League — on assignment) is OUT.
• Ajay Mitchell (right great toe surgery) is OUT.
• Nikola Topic (left knee surgery) is OUT.

Portland

• DeAndre Ayton (sprained left knee) is OUT.
• Matisse Thybulle (sprained right ankle) is OUT.

Series History

The Thunder is 2-0 against the Blazers so far this season (1-0 at home, 1-0 on the road). The Thunder has won 14 in a row against the Blazers including 7 in a row in Portland.

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-13.5)

OKC is coming off a rough loss to a depleted Mavericks squad. Sure, the Thunder was also missing some guys, but they let the drama between the opponent take over the story of the game, and now they need to refocus and get back on track. Portland has won 4 in a row—their longest win streak since they won their first 4 games of the 2022-23 season—but OKC hasn’t lost to the Blazers in almost 4 years. The Thunder should win this one in dominant fashion.

Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (225.5)

The Thunder are at their best when the defense is in tip-top shape. Luguentz Dort is out with knee soreness, but Cason Wallace is good to go despite recently having suffered a nasal fracture against the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday night. Isaiah Hartenstein is also back in the starting lineup, so I expect OKC to cause problems for Portland’s youthful and often careless offense. Unless OKC turns this into an absolute barn-burner of a blowout, I don’t see the point total going over the line.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	31-12	25-17-1	18-25
Zack	36-9	33-12	22-23
Craig	35-9	30-12-2	20-24