Thunder Against the Spread | Depleted Thunder Still Favored in Hosting Trail Blazers

Tip-Off: 7 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Thunder (-3)

Total: 229.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	vs.	Blazers
39-24 (61%)	All	37-27 (57%)
21-10 (67%) at home	Location	18-15 (54%) on the road
38-23 (62%) as favorite	Status	31-23 (57%) as underdog or pick
21-10 (67%) as home favorite	Location Status	14-14 (50%) as road underdog
1-2 (33%)	Head To Head	2-1 (66%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 35-27-1 (56%) against the over on the season.
• Portland is 32-31 (50%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 19-12 (61%) against the over on the road.
• The Trail Blazers are 14-19 (42%) against the over at home

Team Stats

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
POR	110.8	114.5	45.5	34.7	43.9	23.8	16.0	8.0	5.4	L1	5-5
OKC	119.6	106.9	47.9	36.7	44.6	26.9	11.9	10.8	5.6	W5	8-2

Injury Report

Thunder

• Branden Carlson (G League — two-way) is PROBABLE.
• Luguentz Dort (right patellofemoral soreness) is OUT.
• Alex Ducas (G League — two-way) is OUT.
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (rest) is OUT.
• Isaiah Hartenstein (nasal fracture reinjury) is OUT.
• Chet Holmgren (right lower leg contusion) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Dillon Jones (G League — on assignment) is AVAILABLE.
• Ajay Mitchell (sprained right great toe) is OUT.
• Nikola Topic (left knee surgery) is OUT.
• Cason Wallace (right knee contusion) is OUT.
• Jalen Williams (sprained right wrist) is OUT.

Blazers

• Deni Avdija (left quad contusion) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Deandre Ayton (strained left calf) is OUT.
• Dalana Banton (personal reasons) is OUT.
• Jerami Grant (right knee tendinitis) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Mattise Thybulle (sprained right ankle) is OUT.
• Robert Williams III (sprained left knee) is OUT.

Series History

So far this season, the Thunder is 3-0 against the Blazers (1-0 at home, 2-0 on the road). OKC has won 15 straight against Portland, including 7 in a row at the Paycom Center.

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-3)

Oklahoma City is taking the opportunity to get their top guys some rest against a lesser opponent. OKC has all but locked up the top spot in the West, but Portland is still fighting for a shot at a play-in opportunity. Still, the Blazers have a handful of key guys out and a couple of others that are questionable, and as deep as the Thunder is, this could make for a fun game. I like OKC’s depth, as the second and even third units play with a lot of energy, particularly on defense, but they struggle to score at times. This will be a good opportunity for some guys to get some extra run, and so I think OKC has a good shot at winning the game anyway.

Why the Game Will Hit the Over (229.5)

This game could feature a lot of scoring, or it could be a train wreck. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander off the floor, even the Thunder’s top guys struggle to put points on the board, but because there is no fall-back, I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the other guys—namely Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe—step up for big games. As a result, I’m taking the over for this point total.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	45-16	37-23-1	26-34-1
Zack	51-12	44-19	31-32
Craig	49-12	43-16-2	29-31-1