Tip-Off: 2:30 PM CT
Location: FedExForum (Memphis, Tennessee)
Spread: Thunder (-15)
Total: 222.5
Trends Against The Spread
| Thunder | at | Grizzlies |
| 58-28 (67%) | All | 44-42-1 (51%) |
| 26-16 (61%) on the road | Location | 22-21 (51%) at home |
| 56-27 (67%) as favorite | Status | 15-19-1 (44%) as underdog |
| 24-15 (61%) as road favorite | Location Status | 5-6 (45%) as home underdog |
| 6-1 (85%) | Head To Head | 1-6 (14%) |
Trends Against The Total
- Oklahoma City is 45-40-1 (52%) against the over on the season.
- Memphis is 49-37-1 (57%) against the over on the season.
- The Thunder is 20-21-1 (48%) against the over on the road.
- The Grizzlies are 23-19-1 (54%) against the over at home.
Team Stats (Playoffs)
| TEAM | PTS | PA | FG% | 3P% | REB | AST | TOV | STL | BLK | STRK | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 121.0 | 95.7 | 46.4 | 34.4 | 50.7 | 27.0 | 11.3 | 10.0 | 6.7 | W7 | 8-2 |
| MEM | 95.7 | 121.0 | 40.1 | 28.0 | 42.0 | 19.3 | 18.3 | 6.3 | 5.3 | L3 | 4-6 |
Injury Report
Thunder
- Ousmane Dieng (strained left calf) is OUT.
- Nikola Topic (left knee surgery) is OUT.
Grizzlies
- Brandon Clarke (strained PCL in right knee) is OUT.
- Luke Kennard (right Achilles soreness) is QUESTIONABLE.
- Ja Morant (hip contusion) is OUT.
- Jaylen Wells (fractured right wrist) is OUT.
Series History
OKC leads Memphis 3-0 in the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs (2-0 at home, 1-0 on the road). The Thunder went 4-0 against the Grizzlies in the regular season (2-0 at home, 2-0 on the road). OKC has defeated Memphis in 11 straight games, including 4 in a row at FedExForum.
Why the Thunder Will Cover (-15.0)
OKC did the unthinkable in Game 3 by coming back to win after trailing by 29 in the first half. With Ja Morant unable to go for Game 4 after suffering a hard fall in Game 3, the Grizzlies have what seems to be an insurmountable situation. The Thunder struggled in the first half of Game 3, but I expect they learned their lesson and will come out ready to close out the series and enjoy some rest ahead of the second round. Memphis may keep it respectable, but I expect OKC to cover.
Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (222.5)
The point total has climbed upward in each game, but none of the games have hit this line yet. Without Morant, and with the way the Thunder kept the Grizzlies from scoring in the final 4:51 of Game 3, I don’t see this one all of a sudden having more points. I’m taking the under yet again.
Staff Picks
On the Season
| Name | Moneyline | Spread | Over/Under |
| Matt | 64-19 | 52-30-1 | 38-45-1 |
| Zack | 71-15 | 61-25 | 45-41 |
| Craig | 68-16 | 60-22-2 | 42-41-1 |