Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Heavily Favored Over Grizzlies with Sweep Opportunity in Game 4

Tip-Off: 2:30 PM CT

Location: FedExForum (Memphis, Tennessee)

Spread: Thunder (-15)

Total: 222.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	at	Grizzlies
58-28 (67%)	All	44-42-1 (51%)
26-16 (61%) on the road	Location	22-21 (51%) at home
56-27 (67%) as favorite	Status	15-19-1 (44%) as underdog
24-15 (61%) as road favorite	Location Status	5-6 (45%) as home underdog
6-1 (85%)	Head To Head	1-6 (14%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 45-40-1 (52%) against the over on the season.
• Memphis is 49-37-1 (57%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 20-21-1 (48%) against the over on the road.
• The Grizzlies are 23-19-1 (54%) against the over at home.

Team Stats (Playoffs)

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
OKC	121.0	95.7	46.4	34.4	50.7	27.0	11.3	10.0	6.7	W7	8-2
MEM	95.7	121.0	40.1	28.0	42.0	19.3	18.3	6.3	5.3	L3	4-6

Injury Report

Thunder

• Ousmane Dieng (strained left calf) is OUT.
• Nikola Topic (left knee surgery) is OUT.

Grizzlies

• Brandon Clarke (strained PCL in right knee) is OUT.
• Luke Kennard (right Achilles soreness) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Ja Morant (hip contusion) is OUT.
• Jaylen Wells (fractured right wrist) is OUT.

Series History

OKC leads Memphis 3-0 in the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs (2-0 at home, 1-0 on the road). The Thunder went 4-0 against the Grizzlies in the regular season (2-0 at home, 2-0 on the road). OKC has defeated Memphis in 11 straight games, including 4 in a row at FedExForum.

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-15.0)

OKC did the unthinkable in Game 3 by coming back to win after trailing by 29 in the first half. With Ja Morant unable to go for Game 4 after suffering a hard fall in Game 3, the Grizzlies have what seems to be an insurmountable situation. The Thunder struggled in the first half of Game 3, but I expect they learned their lesson and will come out ready to close out the series and enjoy some rest ahead of the second round. Memphis may keep it respectable, but I expect OKC to cover.

Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (222.5)

The point total has climbed upward in each game, but none of the games have hit this line yet. Without Morant, and with the way the Thunder kept the Grizzlies from scoring in the final 4:51 of Game 3, I don’t see this one all of a sudden having more points. I’m taking the under yet again.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	64-19	52-30-1	38-45-1
Zack	71-15	61-25	45-41
Craig	68-16	60-22-2	42-41-1