Tip-Off: 8:30 PM CT
Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)
Spread: Thunder (-11)
Total: 230
Trends Against The Spread
| Thunder | vs. | Nuggets |
| 58-30 (65%) | All | 42-46-2 (47%) |
| 32-13 (71%) at home | Location | 22-22-1 (50%) on the road |
| 56-29 (65%) as favorite | Status | 14-11-1 (56%) as underdog |
| 32-13 (71%) as home favorite | Location Status | 11-8-1 (57%) as road underdog |
| 2-3 (40%) | Head To Head | 3-2 (60%) |
Trends Against The Total
- Oklahoma City is 47-40-1 (54%) against the over on the season.
- Denver is 53-37 (58%) against the over on the season.
- The Thunder is 26-19 (57%) against the over at home.
- The Nuggets are 25-20 (55%) against the over on the road.
Team Stats (Playoffs)
| TEAM | PTS | PA | FG% | 3P% | REB | AST | TOV | STL | BLK | STRK | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 109.4 | 109.7 | 47.7 | 37.9 | 45.8 | 23.8 | 14.4 | 7.5 | 4.0 | W2 | 5-3 |
| OKC | 119.8 | 104.6 | 44.9 | 32.1 | 45.6 | 26.0 | 10.2 | 11.0 | 7.6 | L1 | 4-1 |
Injury Report
Thunder
- Nikola Topic (left knee surgery) is OUT.
Nuggets
- DaRon Holmes II (right Achilles tendon repair) is OUT.
Series History
OKC trails Denver 0-1 in the Western Conference Semifinals (0-1 at home, 0-0 on the road). The Thunder went 2-2 against the Nuggets in the regular season (1-1 at home, 1-1 on the road).
Why the Thunder Will Cover (-11)
Denver wanted to get out of OKC with at least one win in the first two games, and they have already accomplished that. The Thunder is desperate to even up the series before they head to Denver for Games 3 and 4. Add to it that the Nuggets have got to be tired after playing so many minutes in Game 1 just two days after wrapping up their first-round series with the Clippers, and they may not feel the need to push this one as hard. Regardless, I expect the Thunder to get back on track and win big behind a dominant performance by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with much better nights from Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren.
Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (230)
One of the Thunder’s biggest concerns in Game 1 was giving up so many offensive rebounds to the Nuggets, which led to far too many second-chance points. I anticipate some adjustments by Mark Daigneault that will have OKC better prepared to slow down Nikola Jokic for a more defensive game, thus staying below the point total.
Staff Picks
On the Season
| Name | Moneyline | Spread | Over/Under |
| Matt | 65-20 | 54-30-1 | 39-46-1 |
| Zack | 72-16 | 61-27 | 45-43 |
| Craig | 69-17 | 61-23-2 | 43-42-1 |
One Reply to “Thunder Against the Spread | OKC a Double-Digit Favorite Ahead of Game 2 Matchup with Nuggets”