Tip-Off: 7:30 PM CT
Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)
Spread: Thunder (-9.5)
Total: 230.5
Trends Against The Spread
| Thunder | vs. | Pacers |
| 63-36 (63%) | All | 49-48-1 (50%) |
| 37-14 (72%) at home | Location | 25-25 (25%) on the road |
| 61-35 (63%) as favorite | Status | 25-18 (58%) as underdog |
| 37-14 (72%) as home favorite | Location Status | 18-12 (60%) as road underdog |
| 2-0 (100%) | Head To Head | 0-2 (0%) |
Trends Against The Total
- Oklahoma City is 53-45-1 (54%) against the over on the season.
- Indiana is 53-44-1 (54%) against the over on the season.
- The Thunder is 29-22 (56%) against the over at home.
- The Pacers are 27-22-1 (55%) against the over on the road.
Team Stats (Playoffs)
| TEAM | PTS | PA | FG% | 3P% | REB | AST | TOV | STL | BLK | STRK | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 117.4 | 113.3 | 49.7 | 40.1 | 39.6 | 28.1 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 5.6 | W1 | 7-3 |
| OKC | 117.1 | 106.3 | 46.4 | 33.6 | 44.3 | 25.3 | 11.8 | 10.8 | 5.6 | W2 | 7-3 |
Injury Report
Thunder
- Nikola Topic (left knee surgery) is OUT.
Pacers
- Tony Bradley (strained left hip flexor) is QUESTIONABLE.
- Isaiah Jackson (torn right Achilles tendon) is OUT.
- Jarace Walker (sprained right ankle) is OUT.
Series History
The Thunder went 2-0 against the Pacers in the regular season (1-0 at home, 1-0 on the road).
Why the Thunder Will Cover (-9.5)
When these two teams met in OKC at the end of March, the Thunder was in the midst of a long winning streak, and they easily manhandled the Pacers. Indiana is clearly playing much better basketball lately, but I think Chet Holmgren is going to be a key piece to OKC’s success in this matchup, and he wasn’t even healthy during either of the Thunder’s wins against Indiana. The Thunder has the best player in the reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the best defensive player in Luguentz Dort, and a deeper bench from top to bottom. The Finals may end up being closer than expected, but I think the Thunder wins this one by double digits in front of the rowdiest crowd in the NBA.
Why the Game Will Hit the Over (230.5)
Two of the top offenses of the entire NBA Playoffs are bound to pop off for a high-scoring affair, but not necessarily when one of those teams has the best defense for the entire season AND the Playoffs. Indiana plays at a ridiculous pace, but OKC is just a little better. On top of that, the Thunder’s defense has been absurd at times, and that’s what gives them a heavy edge in this matchup. Still, I think Game 1 is going to have a lot of excitement, and it could even be a blowout. Either way, I’m taking the over on the point total.
Staff Picks
On the Season
| Name | Moneyline | Spread | Over/Under |
| Matt | 74-22 | 59-35-1 | 44-52-1 |
| Zack | 80-19 | 65-34 | 51-48 |
| Craig | 77-20 | 66-29-2 | 50-46-1 |
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