Thunder Against the Spread | Shorthanded OKC Takes on Nuggets in Denver as Heavy Underdog

Tip-Off: 8 PM CT

Location: Ball Arena (Denver, Colorado)

Spread: Thunder (+11.5)

Total: 232.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	at	Nuggets
39-41 (48%)	All	42-38 (52%)
20-19 (51%) on the road	Location	19-21 (47%) at home
3-1 (75%) as underdog	Status	26-31 (45%) as favorite
2-1 (66%) as road underdog	Location Status	14-16 (46%) as home favorite
1-2 (33%)	Head To Head	2-1 (66%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 43-37 (53%) against the over on the season.
• Denver is 49-30-1 (62%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 22-17 (56%) against the over on the road.
• The Nuggets are 21-18-1 (53%) against the over at home.

Team Stats

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
OKC	119.4	107.3	48.5	36.5	44.2	25.7	12.6	9.7	5.5	W7	9-1
DEN	121.9	117.0	49.6	39.5	43.7	29.0	12.9	6.8	3.9	W10	10-0

Injury Report

Thunder

• Alex Caruso (rest) is OUT.
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (right oblique injury management) is OUT.
• Isaiah Hartenstein (left soleus injury management) is OUT.
• Chet Holmgren (lower back spasms) is OUT.
• Isaiah Joe (knee soreness) is OUT.
• Ajay Mitchell (left ankle injury management) is OUT.
• Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
• Cason Wallace (left great toe soreness) is OUT.
• Jalen Williams (right hamstring injury management) is OUT.
• Jaylin Williams (right Achilles tendinitis) is OUT.

Nuggets

• Christian Braun (strained right hip flexor/left ankle injury management) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Aaron Gordon (right hamstring injury management) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Cameron Johnson (right ankle injury management) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Nikola Jokic (right wrist injury management) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Spencer Jones (strained right hamstring) is OUT.
• Jamal Murray (right shoulder impingement) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Peyton Watson (strained right hamstring) is OUT.

Why the Thunder Will Cover (+11.5)

OKC enters this one with just a handful of available players, but fans shouldn’t worry. With the 1-seed locked up, most of the Thunder’s key players are sitting out for rest. As a result, OKC is a double-digit underdog, and while Denver should be able to win this one easily, I wouldn’t count the Thunder out from at least making it a game. As a result, I’m taking OKC to cover the spread, even if it’s just barely.

Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (232.5)

The only way the Thunder keeps from getting blown out is by making some hustle plays on defense and slowing it down on the offensive end. Again, I don’t see OKC picking up a win against the Nuggets, but I do think they keep it closer than expected. That’s why I’m taking the under on the point total.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	63-16	34-45	33-46
Zack	65-15	41-39	39-41
Craig	63-16	30-48-1	31-48