Tip-Off: 8:30 PM CT
Location: Mortgage Matchup Center (Phoenix, Arizona)
Spread: Thunder (-10.5)
Total: 213.5
Trends Against The Spread
| Thunder | vs. | Suns |
| 41-44 (48%) | All | 50-37 (57%) |
| 21-20 (51%) on the road | Location | 25-19 (56%) at home |
| 38-42 (47%) as favorite | Status | 25-21 (54%) as underdog |
| 19-18- (51%) as road favorite | Location Status | 12-7 (63%) as home underdog |
| 4-4 (50%) | Head To Head | 4-4 (50%) |
Trends Against The Total
- Oklahoma City is 47-38 (55%) against the over on the season.
- Phoenix is 38-49 (43%) against the over on the season.
- The Thunder is 24-17 (58%) against the over on the road.
- The Suns are 17-27 (38%) against the over at home.
Team Stats (Playoffs)
| TEAM | PTS | PA | FG% | 3P% | REB | AST | TOV | STL | BLK | STRK | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 120.0 | 100.0 | 47.3 | 32.5 | 45.7 | 25.0 | 8.7 | 11.0 | 6.3 | W3 | 3-0 |
| PHX | 100.0 | 120.0 | 41.6 | 33.3 | 42.7 | 21.3 | 17.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | L3 | 0-3 |
Injury Report
Thunder
- Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
- Jalen Williams (strained left hamstring) is OUT.
Suns
- Jordan Goodwin (left calf soreness) is QUESTIONABLE.
- Mark Williams (left foot third metatarsal stress reaction) is OUT.
Why the Thunder Will Cover (-10.5)
This feels like a good opportunity for a Thunder blowout. I don’t expect a close win for OKC, and while a Phoenix upset is possible, it’s not exactly probable. The Thunder has done a great job at staying focused and adjusting when necessary, and I don’t think even the antics from Dillon Brooks can get the Suns a win. With an opportunity to close out the series, I think OKC gets the job done via another impressive performance by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, coupled with the first good three-point shooting night of the series for the Thunder.
Why the Game Will Hit the Over (213.5)
The point totals for these games have stayed low because sound defense has been expected from both sides, but Phoenix hasn’t been able to slow down the Thunder offense for more than a few minutes at a time. There is a chance that the Suns go cold and fail to break 100 points again, but I think Phoenix will at least keep it interesting for a while. Because I expect a double-digit victory by OKC to close out the series, I’m taking the over on the point total.
Staff Picks
On the Season
| Name | Moneyline | Spread | Over/Under |
| Matt | 67-17 | 36-48 | 34-50 |
| Zack | 69-16 | 44-41 | 41-44 |
| Craig | 67-17 | 31-52-1 | 32-52 |