The Oklahoma City Thunder holds a 3-0 lead over the Phoenix Suns ahead of Game 4 on Monday night, an opportunity for the Thunder to sweep its first-round opponent and get some rest ahead of the second round. OKC is a big favorite, despite missing Jalen Williams with a strained hamstring. The Suns will almost certainly put up a fight, but the Thunder feels inevitable at this point.
This feels like a good opportunity for a Thunder blowout. I don’t expect a close win for OKC, and while a Phoenix upset is possible, it’s not exactly probable. The Thunder has done a great job at staying focused and adjusting when necessary, and I don’t think even the antics from Dillon Brooks can get the Suns a win. With an opportunity to close out the series, I think OKC gets the job done via another impressive performance by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, coupled with the first good three-point shooting night of the series for the Thunder.
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This line feels almost perfect for this game. OKC is without Jalen Williams, and Phoenix gets the home crowd, but the Thunder is still the better team in this match-up, and it isn’t even close. I could see this being a double-digit win, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Suns covered late. Either way, I don’t see OKC losing. I do expect a chippy game, and I’m sure Phoenix will try to push the limit on the level of physicality, but a better shooting night from the Thunder than in Games 1 and 2 should do the trick, so I’m taking OKC to cover.
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After blowing out the Suns in Game 1, the Thunder enters Game 2 as an even bigger favorite. 17.5 points is tied for the biggest spread in an NBA Playoff game ever, and while OKC could definitely hit this, I still expect a better game from Phoenix. The Thunder shouldn’t struggle to win the game in the end, but a late cover by the Suns feels likely, so I’m taking Phoenix to cover.
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