Tip-Off: 7:30 PM CT
Location: Frost Bank Center (San Antonio, Spurs)
Spread: Thunder (+3.5)
Total: 219.5
Trends Against The Spread
| Thunder | vs. | Spurs |
| 47-48 (49%) | All | 56-42-1 (57%) |
| 23-23 (50%) on the road | Location | 27-20-1 (57%) at home |
| 4-3 (57%) as underdog | Status | 41-34-1 (54%) as favorite |
| 3-3 (50%) as road underdog | Location Status | 24-20-1 (54%) as home favorite |
| 4-6 (40%) | Head To Head | 6-4 (60%) |
Trends Against The Total
- Oklahoma City is 55-40 (57%) against the over on the season.
- San Antonio is 46-52-1 (46%) against the over on the season.
- The Thunder is 28-18 (60%) against the over on the road.
- The Spurs are 21-27 (43%) against the over at home.
Team Stats (Playoffs)
| TEAM | PTS | PA | FG% | 3P% | REB | AST | TOV | STL | BLK | STRK | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 118.4 | 107.5 | 48.0 | 37.6 | 42.0 | 26.4 | 12.9 | 10.4 | 4.7 | W1 | 8-2 |
| SAS | 115.4 | 106.0 | 47.0 | 36.0 | 47.4 | 25.1 | 15.5 | 8.8 | 7.6 | L1 | 6-4 |
Injury Report
Thunder
- Ajay Mitchell (strained right soleus) is OUT.
- Thomas Sorber (right ACL surgical recovery) is OUT.
- Jalen Williams (left hamstring soreness) is QUESTIONABLE.
Spurs
- NONE
Why the Thunder Will Cover (+3.5)
OKC has a chance to close out the series against the Spurs, and even though Game 6 is in San Antonio, I’m not so sure the Thunder should be the underdog in this one. After a rough outing in Game 4, the Thunder answered in Game 5 with an impressive performance on both ends of the floor. Once again, the narrative is focused on officiating, but in a closeout game, poise and experience are sure to play an important role. Both teams have made adjustments game by game to get a leg up, but at this point, they know each other pretty well. OKC is still the deeper team, even if Jalen Williams continues to sit with a strained hamstring, and I think that will give the Thunder what they need to finish this one out, so I’m not only taking OKC to cover but to win.
Why the Game Will Hit the Over (219.5)
Game 4 is the only game in this series that has hit the under on the point total, and that was because both teams shot pretty poorly. I don’t expect that to happen again, but I do expect this one to be decided in the final minutes. Whether it’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander trading buckets with Victor Wembanyama, or perhaps role players stepping into the spotlight in the clutch, I’m leaning more towards dramatic possessions ending in points over a plethora of defensive stops. I’m like the over in this one.
Staff Picks
On the Season
| Name | Moneyline | Spread | Over/Under |
| Matt | 75-19 | 41-53 | 37-57 |
| Zack | 77-18 | 50-45 | 47-48 |
| Craig | 75-19 | 36-57-1 | 38-56 |