The poor continue to get poorer.
After a Week 4 that saw all four of us struggle, the Heartland Sports staff somehow found a way to make things even worse.
Collectively, we went 3-9.
Three wins.
Nine losses.
Four people picking college football games.
That is not a formula for success.
At this point, we’re not even sure if we’re picking games anymore or simply providing a weekly tutorial on what not to do.
But there’s good news.
It’s October.
And October means a fresh month, a new slate of games and, hopefully, a little better luck.
Fortunately, Week 5 gives us another 12 opportunities to redeem ourselves.
And this week, we have something that looks suspiciously like consensus.
Three games appear on multiple cards:
Kentucky at South Carolina.
BYU at TCU.
Texas Tech at Colorado.
So let’s see if we can finally figure this thing out.
The Game Everyone Is Taking: Kentucky at South Carolina
We don’t have a unanimous selection this week, but we do have our closest thing to one.
Caleb and Craig are both taking Kentucky +3.
That might not technically qualify as a consensus, but considering our recent record, we’re willing to take what we can get.
Kentucky has been one of the biggest surprises in the SEC this season and is coming off a strong performance.
South Carolina, meanwhile, has struggled to find consistency.
The Gamecocks will also be without one of their best defensive players, as Dylan Stewart is suspended.
That’s enough for Caleb and Craig to both take the Wildcats on the road.
Caleb: Kentucky +3
“Kentucky bounced back in a big way last week, while South Carolina has not looked good this season. South Carolina also comes into the game without their best player on defense as Stewart was suspended for one game.”
Craig: Kentucky +3.5
“Kentucky has been the most surprising team in the SEC so far. Meanwhile, South Carolina is on the struggle bus. I like the Wildcats on the road.”
BYU Is Also Getting Plenty of Love
The other major point of agreement this week comes from the Big 12.
Both Caleb and Zack are backing BYU against TCU, although they don’t have exactly the same number.
Caleb has the Cougars laying 6.5 points.
Zack has BYU laying 5.5.
That’s a pretty clear indication of where those two writers stand.
Caleb: BYU -6.5
“BYU might be the best team in the Big 12 while TCU is simply not. I expect BYU to be able to move the ball pretty easily and for their defense to stop the TCU offensive attack.”
Zack: BYU -5.5
“The Cougars have looked solid all season long, while the Horned Frogs have two losses to unimpressive teams. This should be a double-digit win for BYU fueled by that high-powered offense.”
Neither is expecting a particularly competitive game.
Caleb sees BYU moving the ball and shutting down TCU.
Zack thinks the Cougars could win by double digits.
After a 3-9 weekend, that’s the kind of confidence we apparently need.
Texas Tech Is Another Popular Pick
There’s one more game that appears on multiple cards.
Both Caleb and Zack are taking Texas Tech against Colorado.
And they’re both laying 12.5 points.
Caleb: Texas Tech -12.5
“Colorado offense has not looked good, and they are going up against one of the best defenses in the Big 12. I don’t expect them to be able to compete in this game.”
Zack: Texas Tech -12.5
“The Red Raiders haven’t looked quite as good as advertised, but the Buffs are about as bad as expected. I like Tech winning big in Boulder.”
So there’s no disagreement here.
Both believe Texas Tech’s defense will create problems for Colorado and that the Red Raiders can win comfortably.
Now let’s get to the individual cards.
Caleb
Kentucky (+3) vs. South Carolina | Kentucky bounced back in a big way last week, while South Carolina has not looked good this season. South Carolina also comes into the game without their best player on defense as Stewart was suspended for one game.
BYU (-6.5) vs. TCU | BYU might be the best team in the Big 12 while TCU is simply not. I expect BYU to be able to move the ball pretty easily and for their defense to stop the TCU offensive attack.
Texas Tech (-12.5) vs. Colorado | Colorado offense has not looked good, and they are going up against one of the best defenses in the Big 12. I don’t expect them to be able to compete in this game.
Craig
Alabama (-5.5) at Mississippi State | Mississippi State has been playing great, and has one of the most explosive offenses in the country. That being said, I’m not so sure it holds up against the likes of Alabama. Give me Bama to cover here on the road.
Florida (-4.5) at Missouri | I’m slightly worried about a slump from Florida after last week, but this team should be able to handle business. Despite being on the road, I like the Gators here.
Kentucky (+3.5) at South Carolina | Kentucky has been the most surprising team in the SEC so far. Meanwhile, South Carolina is on the struggle bus. I like the Wildcats on the road.
Matt
North Carolina (+21.5) vs. Notre Dame | I’m backing a rested, well-coached Bill Belichick squad with 14 days of bye-week preparation at home against Notre Dame’s explosive offense. While the Fighting Irish will likely win, the low game total (46.5) indicates a slow-paced, low-possession game. Once Notre Dame establishes a comfortable lead, expect them to lean heavily on the run game to bleed the clock and escape healthy—keeping the game entirely within the window for a North Carolina backdoor cover.
Mississippi State (+6) vs. Alabama | Alabama brings elite power into Starkville, this marks the Crimson Tide’s first true, hostile SEC road test of the season. Kamario Taylor leads a highly explosive offense perfectly built to expose Alabama’s documented struggles against the deep ball. I expect a high-flying, back-and-forth battle that stays well within a single-touchdown margin.
UCF (+11.5) at Houston | Houston features a high-flying offense averaging 44.5 points per game, UCF counters with a physical ground game averaging nearly 200 rushing yards that is perfectly designed to bleed the clock and limit possessions. With the Cougars struggling to cover massive numbers this season (1-2 ATS as heavy favorites), expect the Knights’ stingy scoring defense to keep things compact enough to catch the double-digit cover on the road.
Zack
Florida (-4.5) at Missouri | The Gators are coming off a huge win against Ole Miss while the Tigers fell apart late against Mississippi State. That’s a recipe for an upset in this one, but I like Florida to win easily.
BYU (-5.5) at TCU | The Cougars have looked solid all season long, while the Horned Frogs have two losses to unimpressive teams. This should be a double-digit win for BYU fueled by that high-powered offense.
Texas Tech (-12.5) at Colorado | The Red Raiders haven’t looked quite as good as advertised, but the Buffs are about as bad as expected. I like Tech winning big in Boulder.
The Week 5 Heartland Sports Scorecard
Week 4 was not kind to us.
In fact, it was downright cruel.
The entire group combined to go 3-9.
Here’s where the season standings now stand:
| Rank | Writer | Week 4 | Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt | 1-2 | 8-7 |
| 2 | Zack | 1-2 | 7-8 |
| 3 | Craig | 1-2 | 5-10 |
| 4 | Caleb | 0-3 | 4-11 |
Matt remains in first place despite the disastrous weekend.
Zack is just a game behind.
Caleb and Craig remain in the last two spots.
But the gap is starting to become significant.
And with October now here, there are still plenty of Saturdays left to change the standings.
Week 5 Picks
| Writer | Pick No. 1 | Pick No. 2 | Pick No. 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb | Kentucky +3 | BYU -6.5 | Texas Tech -12.5 |
| Craig | Alabama -5.5 | Florida -4.5 | Kentucky +3.5 |
| Matt | North Carolina +21.5 | Mississippi State +6 | UCF +11.5 |
| Zack | Florida -4.5 | BYU -5.5 | Texas Tech -12.5 |
Week 5 Storylines to Watch
Most Popular Games: Kentucky, BYU and Texas Tech
We don’t have a unanimous selection this week.
But we do have three games appearing on multiple cards.
Caleb and Craig are both taking Kentucky.
Caleb and Zack are both taking BYU.
And Caleb and Zack are both taking Texas Tech.
That’s as close as we’re getting to consensus this week.
SEC Underdog Watch
Kentucky is the most popular underdog on the Week 5 board.
Caleb is taking three points.
Craig is taking 3.5.
Both believe the Wildcats have enough going for them to stay within the number on the road.
Matt, meanwhile, has taken the underdog strategy to another level.
He’s taking points in all three of his games.
North Carolina is getting 21.5.
Mississippi State is getting six.
UCF is getting 11.5.
If Matt is right, this could be a very different-looking standings table by the end of Saturday.
Biggest Spread: North Carolina +21.5
Matt has the biggest spread selected this week, but he’s taking the points rather than laying them.
Notre Dame is favored by more than three touchdowns against North Carolina.
Matt’s argument is that the game setup could create enough possessions and scoring opportunities for the Tar Heels to stay inside that number.
It’s a big ask.
But then again, after going 3-9 collectively last week, we’re clearly past the point of making small asks.
Biggest Favorite: Texas Tech -12.5
Caleb and Zack are both laying 12.5 points with Texas Tech against Colorado.
Neither is particularly impressed with Colorado’s offense, and both believe the Red Raiders’ defense can dictate the game.
The question isn’t whether Texas Tech can win.
The question is whether the Red Raiders can win by two touchdowns.
The October Bounce-Back
This might be the biggest storyline of all.
September was not kind to the Heartland Sports picks.
The group entered Week 5 with a combined 24-36 record.
That’s not where any of us expected to be.
But October gives us a clean slate of sorts.
The standings aren’t locked.
The season isn’t close to being decided.
And, most importantly, there are still plenty of games left.
Maybe this is the week we finally start turning things around.
We Really Need October to Be Better
Let’s be honest.
3-9 is bad.
There’s really no way around it.
We can make jokes.
We can blame the lines.
We can blame ourselves.
We can blame college football for being impossible to predict.
But at the end of the day, three wins out of 12 picks isn’t going to get the job done.
So we’re turning the calendar.
We’re turning the page.
And we’re hoping October treats us a little better than September did.
Kentucky is getting points against South Carolina.
BYU is laying points against TCU.
Texas Tech is laying 12.5 against Colorado.
Alabama is heading into Starkville.
Florida is traveling to Missouri.
Notre Dame is a three-touchdown favorite against North Carolina.
And Matt is taking UCF plus 11.5 at Houston.
There are plenty of opportunities.
Now we just need somebody to actually take advantage of them.
After a combined 3-9 weekend, we’re not asking for perfection.
We’re not even asking for everyone to have a winning weekend.
At this point, we’d happily settle for somebody putting together a 3-0 card.
Because October is here, and so is Week 5.
Let’s see if we can finally start winning some football games.