Oklahoma City Thunder

Thunder Against The Spread | Take The Lakers -12

M. Hofeld

matthofeld

Tip-Off: 9 PM CT

Location: Staples Center (Los Angeles, California)

Spread: LAL (-12)

Total: 217

Thunder/Lakers Trends Against The Spread

ThunderLakers
All
13-10 (56%)12-13 (48%)
Location
9-3 (75%) on the road4-7 (36.4%) at home
Status
12-10 (54%) as underdog11-13 (45.8%) as favorite
Location Status
9-3 (75%) as road dog4-7 (36.4%) at home favorite
Head To Head
1-1 (50%)1-1 (50%)

Thunder/Lakers Trends Against The Total

Oklahoma City is 12-10-1 (54.5%) against the total. In other words they hit the over 54.5% of the time. Meanwhile the Lakers are only hitting the over 36% percent of the time (9-16) but they are much better at hitting the over at home (63%) than they are on the road (16%).

With this game being in L.A. and the Thunder hitting the over on the road 45.5% of the time (5-6-1) this game has a 54% chance to hit the over.

Team Stats

TEAMPTSPAFG%REBASTBLKSTLSTRKL10
 OKC107.7114.145.044.622.64.87.1L14-6
 LAL113.1104.948.645.825.16.27.2W58-2

Key Players

Anytime we’re talking about the Lakers we’ll have LeBron James (25.6 PPG) at the forefront of the conversation. That said, the key guy for the Lakers tonight is going to be the status of Anthony Davis. In this season’s first meeting between these to teams the Lakers obliterated OKC 128-99. The Thunder were 11.5 point dogs in that game and Davis produced 18 points and grabbed 7 boards in the blowout. In the second meeting the Lakers’ big man didn’t play and OKC covered the 9.5 point spread.

As the Thunder prepare to play the defending World Champs for the third time this season all eyes should be on Darius Bazley. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was OKC’s leading scorer in both contests so far this season but Bazley improving his scoring from 3 points in the first meeting to 21 in the second is what helped keep a second blowout from happening.

Season History

Game One | Lakers 129 – Thunder 99

Game Two | Lakers 119 – Thunder 112

Why The Lakers Will Cover The Spread

I think the potential for Anthony Davis to be back will be huge for the Lakers in this game but I also expect there to be some defensive adjustments from the second meeting. One important stat to note is that the Lakers have covered 60% of the time this season when favored by 10 to 13 points. Meanwhile OKC covers 50% of the time as a 10 to 13 point dog.

Clearly if Davis sits out this becomes much more difficult for L.A.

Why The Game Will Hit The Over

If I were going to play this game then the over is where I’d be. The first meeting between these two teams hit a total of 227 points and the second time around they were at 231. Both of those, along with what I posted above already is enough to make me think tonight’s total of 217 will be eclipsed.

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