Oklahoma City Thunder

Thunder Against The Spread | Bucks Are A Bad Bet At -11.5

M. Hofeld

matthofeld

Tip-Off: 7 PM CT

Location: Chesapeake Energy Arena (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Milwaukee (-11.5)

Total: 228.5

Thunder/Bucks Trends Against The Spread

BucksThunder
All
12-13-1 (48%)15-10 (60%)
Location
5-9-1 (35.7%) on the road4-7 (36.4%) at home
Status
12-12-1 (50%) as favorite14-10 (58.3%) as underdog
Location Status
5-8-1 (76.9%) as road favorite3-7 (50%) at home dog
Head To Head
0-0 (0%)0-0 (0%)

Thunder/Bucks Trends Against The Total

The game total of 228.5 is really high but there are several trends to show that it’s certainly attainable. Both teams are hitting the over more than 50% of the time (MIL 65.4%/OKC 54.2%) and when the total is high the the percentages get even more interesting. When facing a game total between 224 and 227 points Milwaukee does see a drop to 50% (2-2) but Oklahoma City is a perfect 4-0 at hitting the over in that situation.

Team Stats

TEAMPTSPAFG%REBASTBLKSTLSTRKL10
 MIL121.2112.649.347.826.64.88.3L26-4
 OKC107.4113.444.944.823.14.77.3L34-6

Key Players

After a two-game absence Oklahoma City could really stand to have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander back in the lineup. They’ve faced two of the best teams in the West (Lakers & Nuggets) and now they’re about to go toe-to-toe with second place team in the East. On the season SGA is averaging 22.6 points per game. A little help from him could go a long way.

For the Bucks it’s all about The Greek Freak. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 28.1 points per game this season and while this is the first meeting of the year between these two teams Giannis has certainly enjoyed some good nights against the Thunder.

Season History

First meeting this season

Why The Thunder Will Cover

The underdog role isn’t something new to Oklahoma City this season. They’ve thrived against the spread despite being underdogs in 24 of their 25 games this season. That said, they are much better as road warriors, where they are 11-3 against the spread. At home the Thunder are just 4-7 against the spread.

The good news is that Milwaukee isn’t a great road team against the spread. The Bucks 5-8-1 record against the spread on the road provides a lot of hope here against a double-digit spread.

Neither team is statistically great in this situation but here’s where the rubber meets the road so to speak. Oklahoma City is 14-10 against the spread when facing teams that allow more than 102 points per game. Milwaukee is currently allowing opponents to score 112.6. The Thunder are also 13-8 against the spread this season following a day off, whereas the Bucks are 10-11-1.

Close trends and a big spread point to an OKC cover tonight.

Why The Game Won’t Hit The Over

Once again I would stay away from the total here but I have to pick for this feature so I’m going to go with the under and here’s why. Based on averages alone this game should finish somewhere around a 117-110 final which is just under the 228.5 total. It would be more tempting to take the over had it not been for that half a point and the uncertainty of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s status.

From a trends perspective Oklahoma City hits the over 63.6% of the time at home but they have only been involved in a total between 227 and 230 once this season (1-0) and they are only going over the total 45% of the time following a day off.

On The Season

We just started this feature so bear with us.

Against the Spread: 1-1 Last Pick: OKC (-12) vs. Denver

Over/Under: 1-1 Last Pick: OKC/DEN Over 222

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