Oklahoma City Thunder

Thunder Against The Spread | Can OKC Cover Against The Bucks Twice In Five Days?

M. Hofeld

matthofeld

Tip-Off: 7 PM CT

Location: Fiserv Forum (Milwaukee, Wisconsin)

Spread: Milwaukee (-10.5)

Total: 231.5

Thunder/Bucks Trends Against The Spread

ThunderBucks
All
16-12 (57.1%)12-16-1 (42.9%)
Location
11-4 (73.3%) on the road7-6 (53.8%) at home
Status
15-12 (55.6%) as underdog or pick12-15-1 (44.4%) as favorite
Location Status
11-4 (73.3%) as road dog7-6 (53.8%) at home favorite
Head To Head
1-0 (100%)0-0 (0%)

Thunder/Bucks Trends Against The Total

Both Oklahoma City and Milwaukee are hitting the over greater than 50% of the time with the Bucks capping out at 62.1%. The Thunder are right at 50% on the road but Milwaukee is hitting the over 61.5% of the time at home. The Thunder haven’t played against a total this high this season but the Bucks are 5-2 at hitting the over when the total is between 230 and 233.

Trends that may be concerning against the total are that OKC only hits the over 40.9% of the time following a day off and Milwaukee is hitting the total just 25% of the time on the second night of a back-to-back. When the two teams met five days ago they failed to hit the over of 228.5.

Team Stats

TEAMPTSPAFG%REBASTBLKSTLSTRKL10
 OKC107.7113.644.944.923.54.47.2L23-7
 MIL119.6112.948.847.726.34.78.3L55-5

Key Players

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander returned to the Thunder lineup with a 22-point/6 assist performance in a losing effort against Memphis. This will be his second game back for OKC and should have his legs back under him a bit more. Justin Jackson and Al Horford teamed up to produce a combined 42 points in Oklahoma City’s 114-109 upset of Milwaukee five games ago. In a perfect world that duo becomes more dangerous with SGA on the floor tonight.

The Bucks will rise and fall on the shoulders of Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Greek Freak recorded a triple-double (24 points, 17 rebounds, 10 assists) in a losing effort to the Thunder on the 15th. He was aided by 23 points from Khris Middleton in that game.

Season History

Game 1 | Thunder 119 – Bucks 109

Why The Thunder Will Cover (+10.5)

I am willing to die on the hill of Oklahoma City covering as a road dog. Especially when they are getting double digits in points. The Thunder are 11-4 against the spread as an underdog on the road. They are 5-3 when the spread is 9 to 12 points, and they are 14-9 against the spread following a day off.

What’s that you say? You need more? Well…OK. The Thunder have already covered a double-figure spread against the Bucks this week and there’s absolutely no reason to think they can’t do it again. Milwaukee is 12-15-1 against the spread as a favorite this season and barely above .500 as a home favorite at 7-6. The Bucks are coming into this game on a 5-game losing streak and while OKC has lost five of its last six games, the one win during that stretch was against…Milwaukee.

Give me OKC +10.5!

Why The Game Will Hit The Over

OK, let me preface this by saying that I have zero confidence in this pick. There are two factors that make me really nervous about picking the over tonight…three if you consider how astronomically high the point total is. Oklahoma City and Milwaukee are not trending favorably at hitting the over in this situation. The Thunder are 9-13-1 at hitting the over following a day off and the Bucks are 1-3 at hitting the over on the second night of a back-to-back. When you consider these two teams failed to hit the over less than a week ago it should should settle it, right? Well…no, not really.

On the season Oklahoma City hits the over 51.9% of the time and Milwaukee 62.1% of the time. The Bucks really like a high point total. So much so that they go over 71.4% of the time when the total is between 230 and 233 points. Against teams allowing more than 102 points per game the Thunder hit the over 53.8% of the time and the Bucks 59.3% of the time.

Factor in that SGA is back for Oklahoma City and I can’t help but think this game is heading towards the over. Keep in mind that I’m making this pick with zero confidence though.

On The Season

We just started this feature so bear with us.

Against the Spread: 2-3 Last Pick: OKC (+7) vs. Memphis

Over/Under: 3-2 Last Pick: OKC/Memphis Over 227

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