Oklahoma City Thunder

Thunder Against The Spread | Gotta Love The Spurs & The Under Tonight

M. Hofeld

matthofeld

Tip-Off: 8:00 PM CT

Location: AT&T Center (San Antonio, Texas)

Spread: Spurs (-6.5)

Total: 219.5

Thunder/Spurs Trends Against The Spread

ThunderMavs
All
19-16 (54%)18-12-1 (60%)
Location
12-6 (66%) on the road9-9 (50%) at home
Status
17-16 (51%) as an underdog or pick6-6-1 (50%) as a favorite
Location Status
11-6 (64%) as a road dog3-4 (42%) as a home favorite
Head To Head
1-1(50%)1-1 (50%)

Thunder/Spurs Trends Against The Total

Neither team has been good at hitting the over this season. Oklahoma City only hits the over 41% of the time on the road and San Antonio only hits it 41% of the time at home.

If you’re really wanting a good sign of a higher scoring affair tonight then there’s literally only one. The Thunder hit the over 85% of the time on the second night of a back-to-back.

Team Stats

TEAMPTSPAFG%REBASTBLKSTLSTRKL10
 OKC105.9111.744.644.323.14.37.0L24-6
 SA111.3111.145.545.025.34.97.2W17-3

Key Players

The Spurs have had a duo of players stand out against Oklahoma City this season. In the first meeting between the two teams Lonnie Walker scored a team-high 24 points in leading San Antonio to victory. Walker was help to just 12 points in the second meeting but backcourt mate Dejounte Murray scored 27 in the losing effort.

For the Thunder Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been a stalwart against the Spurs this season. In the first meeting he scored 20 points as the Thunder succumbed to a double deficit loss. Lu Dort was the hero of the second meeting between the two with his game-winning shot but SGA was the guy who put the team in position with a career-high 42 point performance.

Series History

Game 1 | Spurs 112 – Thunder 102

Game 2 | Thunder 102 – Spurs 99

Why The Thunder Won’t Cover (+6.5)

I’m not saying that I’m giving up on the Thunder here but they are slowly losing that road warrior stigma that they had so strongly just a month back. Oklahoma City has lost three of the last four games, against the spread, on the road and last night’s loss to an undermanned Dallas team is enough to make me believe that a Spurs team absent of Rudy Gay and possibly LaMarcus Aldridge could cover as a favorite against the Thunder as well.

Oklahoma City has dropped to 5-7 (41%) against the spread when they are a 5.5 – 8.5 underdog. They are also covering the spread just 28% of the time on the second night of a back-to-back.

Why The Game Won’t Hit The Over

I wasn’t real comfortable with picking the under last night against Dallas but we still hit it. Now I’m in the same position tonight at San Antonio. Oklahoma City has a high percentage of hitting the over on the second night of a back-to-back (as mentioned above) but there are so many other factors that point to this game going under.

  • OKC only hits the over 47% of the time when the total is greater than 205. SA only hits it 46% of the time in the same situation.
  • OKC hits the over just 41% of the time on the road.
  • SA hits it just 41% of the time at home.
  • In two previous meetings this season neither game has hit the over.

On The Season

Took another L against the spread last night but I’m balancing it out with the over/under picks.

Against the Spread: 3-9 Last Pick: OKC (+8) vs. Dallas

Over/Under: 9-3 Last Pick: OKC/Dallas Under (224.5)

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