Tip-Off: 1:00 PM CT
Location: Chesapeake Energy Arena (Oklahoma City)
Spread: Knicks (-5.5)
Thunder/Knicks Trends Against The Spread
|21-17 (55%)||21-16 (65%)|
|10-10 (50%) on the road||8-10 (44%) at home|
|8-4 (66%) as a favorite||19-16 (54%) as an underdog or pick|
|2-3 (40%) as a road favorite||7-10 (41%) as a home underdog or pick|
|Head To Head|
|0-1 (0%)||1-0 (100%)|
Thunder/Knicks Trends Against The Total
When the total is between 212-215 points New York is only hitting the over 22% of the time and Oklahoma City is hitting it just 20% of the time.
The Thunder have hit the over in 55% of their home games but the Knicks are only hitting the over 26% of the time on the road.
In the previous meeting between these two this season the game did not hit the over.
Julius Randle is going to give Oklahoma City fits. The New York power forward is posting 22.8 points, 11 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game this season. In the first meeting against OKC Randle scored 18 points, had 12 boards, and distributed 7 assists.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 25 points in that first meeting between the Thunder and Knicks. Hamidou Diallo added another 23 points off the bench but since he’s being traded to Detroit there’s going to be added pressure on Lu Dort now to produce regularly.
Game 1 | Thunder 101 – Knicks 89
Why The Thunder Won’t Cover (+5.5)
Oklahoma City’s percentages have been trending downward over the last month but the Thunder are still 21-16 overall against the spread. There are two problems here for me though. First, OKC is playing at home where they have been significantly less successful against the spread (8-10 overall and 7-10 as a home underdog). Secondly, I don’t think we can overlook the mental aspect of Hamidou Diallo getting traded. Losing a guy from the locker room often requires an adjustment period on the court.
Why The Game Won’t Hit The Over
I strongly feel like this game is destined for the under. The Diallo factor is going to come into play here again as OKC is going to need to find a way to replace those points. Beyond that, both of these teams trend heavily towards the under. The previous meeting between the two didn’t hit the over and on the season New York is 5-14-1 against the over on the road. After a day off Oklahoma City hits the over just 39% of the time (and that was with Diallo in the lineup) and the Knicks are even worse at 35% following a day off.
On The Season
Travel requirements with the real job have made it difficult for me to post since the All-Star break but hopefully we can get back into a better routine.
Against the Spread: 3-10 Last Pick: San Antonio (-6.5) vs. OKC
Over/Under: 10-3 Last Pick: OKC/San Antonio under (219.5)
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