Tip-Off: 6:00 PM CT
Location: Little Caesars Arena (Detroit, Michigan)
Spread: Pistons (-2.5)
Thunder/Pistons Trends Against The Spread
|26-29 (47%)||28-23-4 (54%)|
|16-10 (61%) on the road||13-11-1 (54%) at home|
|24-29 (45%) as an underdog or pick||1-2 (33%) as a favorite|
|15-10 (60%) as a road dog||0-2 (0%) as a home favorite|
|Head To Head|
|0-1 (0%)||1-0 (0%)|
Thunder/Pistons Trends Against The Total
OKC is 27-27-1 against the over this season.
Detroit is 27-28 against the over this season.
The Thunder are hitting the over 36% of the time on the road.
The Pistons are hitting the over 44% of the time at home.
The absence of Jerami Grant tonight should be an advantage for OKC. Grant is scoring at a clip of 22.6 points per game this season and dropped 21 points on the Thunder eleven days ago. In is absence I would look for shooting guard Josh Jackson to have a solid night. He scored 14 against Oklahoma City in the previous meeting but could be called upon to take more shots tonight. Small forward Saddiq Bey could quietly have a solid night as well for Detroit.
For OKC, I like center Moses Brown to have a good night. He’s coming off an 18 point/12 rebound night against the Warriors and should be solid again tonight, especially in the absence of Detroit’s Mason Plumlee. I also think this could be a good matchup for Theo Maledon. Lu Dort is going to draw a lot of attention from the Pistons and that should open up opportunities for the young Thunder point guard.
Game 1 | Detroit 132 – OKC 108
Why The Thunder Won’t Cover (+2.5)
You pretty much have to believe Oklahoma City can win this game to pick them to cover. Oklahoma City doesn’t want to win this game! The line is too close to even for me to take the Thunder here. I would absolutely be tempted if there were three more points added to that spread.
Why The Game Won’t Hit The Over (215.5)
Remember when I said that OKC doesn’t want to win this game? Well.. Detroit doesn’t want to either. That’s going to help me ignore the fact that there will be little defense played and stick with the under. Following a day off the Thunder only hit the over 43% of the time and Detroit hits it 46% of the time in the same situation. When the line is between 215 and 218 the Thunder are only covering the over 44% of the time.
I think it’ll be incredibly close but I’ll stick with the trends and go with the under.
On The Season
I got another split on Wednesday night by picking the Warriors and the points but that game destroyed the over and I was on the wrong side of it.
Against the Spread: 11-16 Last Pick: Golden State (-10.5 ) at OKC
Over/Under: 15-12 Last Pick: Golden State/OKC under (224.5)
You can follow all of my NBA picks here.
Follow us on Twitter: @SportsHeartland