Oklahoma City Thunder

Thunder Against The Spread | Injury Report Says Take The Pacers And The Points

M. Hofeld

matthofeld

Tip-Off: 7:00 PM CT

Location: Chesapeake Energy Arena (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Pelicans (-7.5)

Total: 232.5

Pacers/Thunder Trends Against The Spread

PacersThunder
All
25-37 (40%)29-34 (46%)
Location
17-15 (53%) on the road10-21 (32%) at home
Status
14-19 (42%) as a favorite27-34 (44%) as an underdog or pick
Location Status
8-6 (57%) as a road favorite9-21 (30%) as a home underdog
Head To Head
0-1 (0%)1-0 (100%)

Pacers/Thunder Trends Against The Total

OKC is 30-32-1 against the over this season.

Indiana is 37-24-1 against the over this season.

The Thunder are hitting the over 61% of the time at home.

The Pacers are hitting the over 67% of the time on the road.

Team Stats

TEAMPTSPAFG%REBASTBLKSTLSTRKL10
 IND113.9113.246.942.326.76.48.5L24-6
 OKC105.4112.044.445.522.24.57.0L11-9

Key Players

Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon are both listed as game time decisions. That tells me Caris LeVert is the one to watch for the Pacers tonight. LeVert scored 28 points and 5 rebounds, to go along with 6 assists, against OKC on April 21st.

The Thunder will be without Lu Dort again and I’m not certain who would actually have an advantageous matchup here. Dort didn’t play in the game last month but Darius Bazley did and scored 26 points. Obviously that’s a good starting point if you’re looking at who will produce for the Thunder. I also like Kenrich Williams to provide some valuable minutes off the bench.

Series History

Game 1 | Indiana 122 – Oklahoma City 116

Why The Thunder Won’t Cover (+7.5)

I don’t look for this to be a blowout for the Pacers but I am concerned about OKC’s depth with Dort and Aleksej Pokusevski on the bench beside Mike Muscala. This could easily be a situation where the Thunder remain extremely competitive for three and a half quarters before fading away late.

When playing against teams that win 45-55% of its games Oklahoma City is only covering the spread 37% of the time. When playing after a day off they’re covering 45% of the time. Meanwhile, Indiana is covering the spread 53% of the time on the road and 57% of the time as a road favorite.

Staff Picks

Why The Game Will Hit The Over (232.5)

I think the flow of this game is going to be pretty fast so that typically trends towards a higher point total. The Pacers are hitting the over 60% of the time this season, 67% of the time on the road, and 71% of the time when the line is between 231 and 234 points. The Thunder are hitting the over 61% of the time at home. Last month’s game went over as well.

On The Season

The struggle is real here. This is a tough team to prognosticate this season. We got the point spread pick against New Orleans but missed on the over/under.

Against the Spread: 15-19 Last Pick: New Orleans (-8.5) vs. OKC

Over/Under: 18-16 Last Pick: New Orleans/OKC over (229.5)

You can follow all of my NBA picks here.

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