Tip-Off: 7:00 PM CT
Location: Chesapeake Energy Arena (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)
Spread: Kings (-4.5)
Kings/Thunder Trends Against The Spread
|28-35-1 (44%)||30-35 (46%)|
|17-14-1 (54%) on the road||11-22 (33%) at home|
|6-15 (28%) as a favorite||28-35 (44%) as an underdog or pick|
|2-4 (33%) as a road favorite||10-22 (31%) as a home underdog|
|Head To Head|
|0-0 (0%)||0-0 (0%)|
Kings/Thunder Trends Against The Total
OKC is 32-32-1 against the over this season.
Sacramento is 33-29-2 against the over this season.
The Thunder are hitting the over 63% of the time at home.
The Kings are hitting the over 43% of the time on the road.
Sacramento is going to be short tonight, a position that OKC repeatedly finds itself in, and that puts the attention on Buddy Hield. With De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton on the shelf the Kings are going to rely heavily on the former Sooner standout to produce. On the season Hield is second on the team with an average of 16.7 points per game and he’ll need every bit of that, and more, for the Kings to cover. Hield is coming off a 27-point effort against Dallas.
The Thunder should be in decent position tonight in terms of the roster. Aleksej Pokusevski is for sure out but Darius Bazley and Lu Dort are going to be on the floor. It’s the latter of those two that I feel has the best opportunity to shine tonight. I’d also take some stock in shooting guard Ty Jerome and big man Moses Brown.
First meeting of the season
Why The Thunder Won’t Cover (+4.5)
I’m really torn here because based on trends this is a game where Oklahoma City should cover. I’m scared by the 4.5 line though because that means the Thunder will be in a position to win and you can’t really deny that they don’t really want to do that. In fact, I would go so far as to say that the last thing they want to do is mess around and accidentally win this game. That’s why I am expectation a late surge from the Kings to push it beyond the 5.5 point spread. I definitely don’t have any confidence in this pick though because I think either way you could be walking into a trap here.
Why The Game Will Hit The Over (227.5)
Both teams are performing well against the over right now. They are both either over 50% in the major over/under trends or they’re hovering just around the 50% mark. The Thunder hit the over 63% of the time at home and the Kings are hitting the over 52% of the time following an off day. I think pace of play is going to be a key factor here and I’m much more confident in this pick than I am the spread.
On The Season
I went back to the slit against Phoenix the other night, losing the pick against the spread but hitting the over. I’m still holding at a combined .500 on the picks this season.
Against the Spread: 16-20 Last Pick: Phoenix (-14.5) vs. OKC
Over/Under: 20-16 Last Pick: Phoenix/OKC over (222.5)
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