Tip-Off: 7:00 PM CT
Location: Paycom Center (OKC)
Spread: Thunder (-2.5)
Rockets/Thunder Trends Against The Spread
|5-8-1 (38%)||7-6 (53%)|
|4-3-1 (57%) on the road||4-3 (57%) at home|
|4-7-1 (36%) as an underdog||0-0 (0%) as a favorite|
|4-3-1 as a road underdog (57%)||0-0 (0%) as a home favorite|
|Head To Head|
|1-0 (0%)||0-1 (0%)|
Rockets/Thunder Trends Against The Total
OKC is hitting the over just 23% of the time this season.
The Rockets are hitting the over 38% of the time this season.
The Thunder are 3-4 against the over at home.
Houston is 4-3-1 against the over on the road.
Time have been tough for Houston but Christian Wood has been a bright spot. The 6-9/214 center is averaging a double-double on the season with 16.5 points and 10.9 rebounds per game. In the previous meeting with Oklahoma City he went off for 31 points on 68.4% shooting from the floor.
Small forward Jae’Sean Tate is shooting 49.2% from the floor this season and shooting guard Kevin Porter (day-to-day) is dishing out an average of 5.1 assists per game.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was held to just 10 points in Monday’s loss which is a crucial reason the Thunder offense stalled out to just 90 points in the game. It was the lowest scoring output for OKC since October 30th when they lost 103-82 at Golden State. That’s important because in the first matchup this season with the Rockets SGA only scored 13 points in the 124-91 loss. Clearly there’s a direct coloration between SGA having poor nights and the Thunder having poor nights. That’s what makes him the most crucial player on the OKC roster.
Lu Dort has risen above Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in field goal percentage. He’s shooting 43% from the floor on average. Rookie Josh Giddy is dishing out an average of 6.2 assists per game.
Game 1 | Houston 124 – OKC 91
Why The Thunder Will Cover (-2.5)
This is the first time Oklahoma City has been favored to win a game this season so there really are no trends to measure this moment by. That said, the Thunder, despite the two-game losing streak, are a much better team at home than they are on the road and Houston is giving up an average of 116 points per game on the road to its opponents.
The Thunder have covered the spread 54% of the time following an off day and the Rockets are covering just 41% of the time following an off day. That’s clearly an advantageous trend for OKC but again we’re in unchartered territory with the Thunder being favored.
The Rockets have been decent against the spread on the road (4-3-1) but this is such a low number that we’re practically predicting a winner here. Houston hasn’t won since defeating Oklahoma City on October 22nd. Since that night they’ve lost twelve games in a row which would make it nearly impossible to pick them to win tonight.
Why The Game Will Hit The Over (213.5)
I was incredibly confident in picking the over against Miami on Monday night but got burned on it due to Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo sitting out. Maybe I’m a glutton for punishment but I’m on the over again tonight. The primary reason has to do with Houston’s poor defensive performances on the road that leads me to believe the Thunder will have better than average offensive production.
There aren’t a lot of trends with this matchup that would lead you to move towards the over but there are two that really stand out to me. First, Houston hits the over 57% of the time on the road. Secondly, the Rockets have the same rate of success (57%) against the over when playing opponents that allow greater that 102 points per game to opponents.
On The Season
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