Tip-Off: 7:00 PM CT
Location: FedEx Forum (Memphis)
Spread: Memphis (-9.5)
Rockets/Thunder Trends Against The Spread
|13-8 (61%) Overall||12-9 (57%) Overall|
|6-4 (60%) on the road||7-5 (58%) at home|
|12-7 (63%) as an underdog||5-4 (55%) as a favorite|
|6-4 (60%) as a road underdog||5-3 (62%) as a home favorite|
|Head To Head|
|0-0 (0%)||0-0 (0%)|
Thunder/Grizzlies Trends Against The Total
OKC is hitting the over 30% of the time this season.
The Grizzlies are hitting the over 57% of the time this season.
The Thunder are 2-8 against the over on the road.
Memphis is 8-4 against the over at home.
In the absence of Ja Morant the Grizzlies have looked to Dillon Brooks to provide scoring and on the floor leadership. Brooks has responded with averaging18.4 points per game. Brooks kicked off his week with a 21-point effort against Sacramento on Sunday.
Former Thunder star Steven Adams is shooting 49.5% from the floor for Memphis.
The Thunder are going to keep looking at the same trio of stars to lead them to a slump-breaking win. Despite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 39-point effort against the Rockets on Wednesday night OKC walked off the court having lost a seventh consecutive game. On the season Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 20.2 points per game while Lu Dort is shooting 42.7% from the floor and Josh Giddy is dishing out 5.8 assists per game.
This is the first meeting of the season.
Why The Thunder Will Cover (+9.5)
The Thunder may be struggling to pick up a win but they’re still a tough out. OKC had won six games in a row against the spread before Monday night and they’re covering 60% of the time on the road this season. That number increases a bit to 63% when playing on the road as an underdog and then 66% of the time when playing the second game of a back-to-back.
Memphis is strong against the spread as well this season but I think this line is affected by OKC’s current losing streak and, like last night’s total, gives us an opportunity to take advantage. The key here is defense…the Grizzlies don’t play much of it. Memphis is allowing opponents to score 114.8 points per game on their home floor and while the Thunder are anemic on the road I think there’s enough right there to provide confidence against nearly a 10-point spread.
Why The Game Will Hit The Over (213.5)
I was feeling really good about OKC and Houston hitting the over on Wednesday night despite the trends leaning the other way. We nailed that pick but this one scares me a bit. The reason why is because, once again, the line is exactly were my algorithm projected it to be at 215.5 points. That means we have to look at some other intangibles here and one that I like is the fact that the Thunder hit the over 66% of the time on the second night of a back-to-back. Couple that with the fact that Memphis hits the over 66% of the time at home and it looks like we found what we need to push us in the right direction. It’s going to be close though!
On The Season
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