Tip-Off: 8:00 PM CT
Location: Footprint Center (Phoenix, AZ)
Spread: Suns (-15)
Thunder/Suns Trends Against The Spread
|19-11 (63%) Overall||17-13 (56%) Overall|
|9-5 (64%) on the road||9-7 (56%) at home|
|18-10 (64%) as an underdog or pick||16-11 (59%) as a favorite|
|9-5 (64%) as a road favorite||9-7 (56%) as a home underdog|
|Head To Head|
|0-0 (0%)||0-0 (0%)|
Thunder/Suns Trends Against The Total
- OKC is hitting the over 36% of the time this season.
- The Suns are hitting the over 40% of the time this season.
- The Thunder are 5-9 against the over at home.
- Phoenix is 8-8 against the over on the road.
A guy that we don’t talk about enough when it comes to the Thunder is Darius Bazley. On the season he’s averaging 8.9 points and 6.3 rebounds per game. However, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Lu Dort drawing tougher defensive match-ups tonight this could be a fantastic opportunity for Bazley to have a solid night. Bazley has exceeded his season average in scoring in four of the last five games including a 17-point & 11-rebound performance against Denver last night.
Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 21.8 points per game for OKC and Dort is shooting 42.6% from the floor. Rookie Josh Giddey is averaging 6.1 assists per game.
Derrick Favors is out tonight for OKC so that might add some extra opportunity to Phoenix center Deandre Ayton who is averaging a double-double this season with 16.9 points and 11.3 rebounds per game. That said, Devin Booker is the key for the Suns. Averaging 23 points per game, Booker is the leading scorer for Phoenix and he’s coming off a 24-point performance against the Lakers on Tuesday.
Chris Paul is averaging 10 assists per game for Phoenix and backup center JaVale McGee is shooting 66% from the floor.
First meeting of the season.
Why the Thunder Will Cover (+15)
Things are looking up for the Thunder and just like last night against Denver the trends are in OKC’s favor. Riding a three-game winning streak, and with no significant injuries, being a 15-point dog on the road seems a bit too much here. Granted, the Suns have the best record in the NBA but OKC is strong on the road against the spread. Not only that, they’re strong as an underdog with a cover rate of 64%.
The Suns are giving up an average of 105.6 points per game at home which should boost the 96.9 road scoring average Oklahoma City is heading into the game with. I’m not at all convinced that the Thunder are going to extend its winning streak tonight but I am pretty confident that they won’t lose by more than 15.
Why the Game Won’t Hit the Over (214)
I got a little crazy and went with the over last night and that’s almost always a bad pick in a game that OKC is playing in. I’m not making that mistake tonight and the trends support that decision. Neither team is strong at hitting the over and, particularly in this situation, the Thunder are hitting the over just 35% of the time on the road. When playing after a day off the Suns are hitting the over just 37% of the time. This all makes the under an extremely solid pick for tonight.
On the Season
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