Tip-Off: 7:30 PM CT
Location: American Airlines Center (Dallas, Texas)
Spread: Mavericks (-11.5)
Thunder/Mavericks Trends Against The Spread
|27-14-1 (65%) Overall||22-21 (51%)|
|13-7 (65%) on the road||9-11 (45%) at home|
|26-13-1 (66%) as underdog or pick||13-10 (56%) as favorite|
|13-7 (65%) as road underdog||7-6 (53%) as home favorite|
|Head To Head|
|1-1 (50%)||1-1 (50%)|
Thunder/Mavericks Trends Against The Total
- OKC is hitting the over 42% of the time this season.
- The Mavs are hitting the over 34% of the time this season.
- The Thunder are 9-11 against the over on the road.
- Dallas is 4-14-2 against the over at home.
This is the third meeting of the season between the Thunder and the Mavericks. The Mavericks won both games played in Oklahoma City.
Why the Thunder Will Cover (+11.5)
Oklahoma City isn’t winning a lot of games, but they are covering the spread more often than not by a good margin, whereas Dallas is almost split right down the middle. Double digits seems like a lot of ground to cover, even when the Mavs have two wins against the Thunder in OKC by 19 and 9 points. The Thunder is actually slightly better at covering the spread when it’s in the 10-13 point range, so I anticipate a single-digit differential tonight.
Why the Game Will Not Hit the Over (209)
History shows us this game won’t even break 200 points. In the first two meetings in Oklahoma City earlier this season, the Thunder and the Mavs combined for 187 and 181 points. OKC’s offense seems to have improved a bit since then, particularly over the last few games, but neither team is going to score or give up a ton of points. I’m pretty confident about the under in this one, which means I’m likely to look like a fool by the end of the night, but I’m standing by it anyway.
On the Season