Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Missing Key Pieces Against Nuggets

Tip-Off: 7 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Thunder (-5.5)

Total: 224.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	vs.	Nuggets
30-16-1 (65%)	All	20-26-2 (43%)
16-7 (69%) at home	Location	8-16-1 (33%) on the road
20-11 (664%) as favorite	Status	2-2 (50%) as underdog or pick
13-5 (72%) as home favorite	Location Status	2-2 (50%) as road underdog
2-1 (66%)	Head To Head	1-2 (33%)

Trends Against The Total

• OKC has hit the over 54% of the time this season.
• Denver has hit the over 38% of the time this season.
• The Thunder are 12-10-1 against the over at home this season.
• The Nuggets are 9-15-1 against the over on the road this season.

Team Stats

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
DEN	115.0	110.9	49.6	36.9	44.0	28.8	12.6	6.8	5.3	W2	7-3
OKC	120.8	112.9	50.2	38.8	41.2	27.0	12.5	8.3	6.4	L2	6-4

Series History

The Thunder is 2-1 against the Nuggets so far this season (0-1 at home, 2-0 on the road).

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-5.5)

**UPDATE** Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, and Luguentz Dort are all available; meanwhile, Nikola Jokic has been ruled out. The line has swung heavily to OKC, and I like them to cover.

As of this morning, the Thunder is a slight favorite at home against the Nuggets, and I’m not really quite sure how. If OKC was at full strength, then sure, that makes perfect sense. But as of this morning, the Thunder is for sure without Jalen Williams (sprained right ankle) and Isaiah Joe (sternum contusion) and PROBABLY without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (illness), Luguentz Dort (left ankle soreness), and Chet Holmgren (sprained left ankle). Now, the Nuggets could be missing Nikola Jokic, but still, with all those injuries, I don’t see how OKC could be expected to win this one. Let me put it this way: if Shai is announced as good to go, then I’ll change my mind. But as of right now, I’m taking Denver to win and cover the spread.

Why the Game Will Hit the Over (224.5)

Oklahoma City can typically find a way to score, regardless of who’s playing, and depending upon who’s out for the Thunder, the level of defense that they play is definitely going to go down. Denver is similar to the Thunder in that they’re well-rounded on both sides, and they can definitely put up points. The over on the point total seems like a pretty easy pick to me whether OKC is healthy or not.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	23-22	22-22-1	15-30
Zack	32-15	27-19-1	20-27
Craig	27-12	20-18-1	14-25