Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Faces Tough Cover at Home in SEGABABA Against Soaring Rockets

Tip-Off: 7 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Thunder (-4.5)

Total: 226.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	vs.	Rockets
41-29-1 (58%)	All	40-29-2 (58%)
22-13 (62%) at home	Location	14-9-1 (42%) on the road
31-23 (57%) as favorite	Status	22-21-1 (51%) as underdog or pick
19-11 (63%) as home favorite	Location Status	10-16-1 (38%) as road underdog
2-1 (66%)	Head To Head	1-2 (33%)

Trends Against The Total

• OKC has hit the over 55% of the time this season.
• Houston has hit the over 47% of the time this season.
• The Thunder are 18-16-1 against the over at home this season.
• The Rockets are 16-18 against the over on the road this season.

Team Stats

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
HOU	114.2	112.4	46.1	35.4	46.0	24.8	12.8	7.7	4.6	W9	9-1
OKC	120.3	112.9	49.9	39.0	41.8	26.8	12.5	8.3	6.3	W1	8-2

Injury Report

Thunder

• Ousmane Dieng is OUT (G League — on assignment).
• Adam Flagler is OUT (G League — two-way).
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is OUT (right quad contusion).

Rockets

• Steven Adams is OUT (PCL surgery on right knee).
• Tari Eason is OUT (left tibia surgery).
• Nate Hinton is OUT (G League — two-way).
• Jermaine Samuels Jr. is OUT (G league — two-way).
• Alperen Sengun is OUT (sprained right ankle).
• Cam Whitmore is OUT (sprained right knee).

Series History

The Thunder are 2-1 against the Houston Rockets so far this season (1-0 at home, 1-1 on the road).

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-4.5)

I took the Thunder to cover at -5.5 last night after the win over the Pelicans in New Orleans, and the line originally moved quite a bit in OKC’s direction, but now that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is out, the line has shifted the other way. I still feel pretty good about the cover, but Houston is coming off a day of rest. They’re missing Alperen Sengun, who has been particularly bothersome to the Thunder, AND the Rockets have won 9 in a row and 11 of their last 13 to get to one game back of the Golden State Warriors from the play-in. Regardless, I’m taking OKC to take care of business at home and cover the spread, even if it’s not by much.

Why the Game Will Hit the Over (226.5)

The Rockets don’t have the personnel to stop the Thunder from scoring at will, so I don’t think OKC will struggle in that area. Shai being out is a blow to the offense for sure, but there’s plenty of scoring options around. Houston also has some nice playmakers in Jalen Green and Fred Van Vleet, so they will surely put up some points also, so I’m taking the over on the point total.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	41-28	35-33-1	29-39
Zack	50-21	39-31-1	33-37
Craig	42-16	28-29-1	23-34