Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Favored in Game 1 Against Mavs

Tip-Off: 8:30 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Thunder (-3.5)

Total: 218.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	vs.	Mavericks
49-36-1 (57%)	All	52-36 (59%)
28-15 (65%) at home	Location	29-15 (65%) on the road
38-27 (58%) as favorite	Status	15-16 (48%) as underdog or pick
24-13 (64%) as home favorite	Location Status	9-9 (50%) as home underdog
2-2 (50%)	Head To Head	2-2 (50%)

Trends Against The Total

• OKC has hit the over 54% of the time this season.
• Dallas has hit the over 45% of the time this season.
• The Thunder are 22-20-1 against the over at home this season.
• The Mavericks are 22-22 against the over on the road this season.

Team Stats (Playoffs only)

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
DAL	107.0	100.3	46.5	33.5	42.3	21.2	11.5	7.2	6.3	W2	4-2
OKC	105.3	89.5	48.2	38.7	43.0	22.8	13.0	8.0	5.3	W4	4-0

Injury Report

Thunder

• NONE

Mavericks

• Luka Doncic is PROBABLE (sprained right knee).
• Maxi Kleber is OUT (sprained right shoulder).
• Olivier-Maxence Prosper is OUT (sprained left ankle).

Series History

The Thunder went 3-1 against the Dallas Mavericks in the regular season series (2-0 at home, 1-1 on the road).

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-3.5)

This series is expected to be about as close as they come on a game-to-game basis. OKC is favored by a few points, and I’m thinking that Vegas is giving Loud City about 3 points of credit. As long as the Thunder can maintain home court advantage, they will (obviously) come away with the series win, but it all starts with Game 1. OKC has enjoyed over a week of rest, and while some detractors claim that will lead to rust, I would rather be in this position than beat up and tired like the Mavericks possibly are after a 6-game series with the Clippers.

Why the Game Will Hit the Over (218.5)

In the regular season, both the Thunder and the Mavericks were top 10 in scoring in the entire NBA. Overall point totals have dropped in the playoffs because officials seem to be letting teams play with a lot more physicality, leading to fewer trips to the free throw line. We will see if that continues as both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic have their ways of getting to the charity stripe, but even if the score isn’t expected to be quite as high as the regular season, I can still see this one going over the mark.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	50-33	43-39-1	34-47
Zack	61-25	46-39-1	40-46
Craig	51-19	36-33-1	29-40