Tip-Off: 8 PM CT
Location: Ball Arena (Denver, Colorado)
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)
Total: 222.5
Trends Against The Spread
| Thunder | at | Nuggets |
| 6-1 (85%) | All | 2-5 (28%) |
| 4-0 (100%) on the road | Location | 1-3 (25%) at home |
| 5-1 (83%) as favorite | Status | 1-0 (100%) as underdog |
| 3-0 (100%) as road favorite | Location Status | 0-0 (0%) as home underdog |
| 1-0 (100%) | Head To Head | 0-1 (0%) |
Trends Against The Total
- Oklahoma City is 2-5 (28%) against the over on the season.
- Denver is 5-2 (71%) against the over on the season.
- The Thunder is 1-3 (25%) against the over on the road.
- The Nuggets are 2-2 (50%) against the over at home.
Team Stats (Last Season’s Stats)
| TEAM | PTS | PA | FG% | 3P% | REB | AST | TOV | STL | BLK | STRK | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 113.3 | 95.9 | 46.0 | 34.8 | 45.0 | 25.3 | 12.6 | 13.1 | 7.4 | W7 | 7-0 |
| DEN | 118.3 | 116.6 | 45.5 | 37.2 | 47.3 | 28.7 | 13.9 | 9.6 | 4.9 | W2 | 4-3 |
Injury Report
Thunder
- Alex Ducas (G League — two-way) is OUT.
- Adam Flagler (G League — two-way) is OUT.
- Isaiah Hartenstein (fractured left hand) is OUT.
- Nikola Topic (left ACL surgery recovery) is OUT.
- Jaylin Williams (strained right hamstring) is OUT.
- Kenrich Williams (right knee surgery) is OUT.
Nuggets
- Vlatko Cancar (sprained right ankle) is DOUBTFUL.
- Aaron Gordon (strained right calf) is OUT.
- PJ Hall (G League — two-way) is OUT.
- DaAron Holmes (right achilles tendon repair) is OUT.
- Jamal Murray (concussion protocol) is OUT.
Series History
The Thunder is 1-0 against the Nuggets so far this season (0-0 at home, 1-0 on the road).
Why the Thunder Will Cover (-6.5)
This spread is about exactly where I would expect it to be given all of the circumstances. The Nuggets have played better since their opening night loss to OKC, and they are at home, but they are missing Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon. Put all that together, and I expect the Thunder to win, but I do think Nikola Jokic manages to keep it a closer than some may think. Still, I’m going to give OKC the cover because of how consistent the defense has been through the first 7 games of the season.
Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (222.5)
The under on the point total is a pretty good pick for OKC so far considering they are holding opponents to just over 95 points a game. Denver has a top-tier offense, but that’s likely to suffer with their key injuries. Because I expect a close-ish game, I’m taking the under.
Staff Picks
On the Season
| Name | Moneyline | Spread | Over/Under |
| Matt | 6-1 | 4-3 | 5-2 |
| Zack | 7-0 | 6-1 | 5-2 |
| Craig | 6-0 | 5-0-1 | 4-2 |
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