Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Heavily Favored Over Bucks in NBA Cup Rematch

Tip-Off: 7 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Thunder (-15)

Total: 227

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	vs.	Bucks
30-18 (62%)	All	22-25-1 (47%)
17-7 (70%) at home	Location	10-13 (43%) on the road
29-17 (63%) as favorite	Status	5-6 (45%) as underdog or pick
17-7 (70%) as home favorite	Location Status	5-5 (50%) as road underdog
0-1 (0%)	Head To Head	1-0 (100%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 24-22-1 (53%) against the over on the season.
• Milwaukee is 25-22-1 (53%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 14-10 (58%) against the over at home.
• The Bucks are 13-10 (56%) against the over on the road.

Team Stats

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
MIL	114.6	112.1	48.4	38.5	44.3	25.2	13.7	7.3	5.2	L3	6-4
OKC	117.0	104.7	47.3	35.6	44.1	26.1	12.1	11.1	5.6	W1	7-3

Injury Report

Thunder

• Alex Caruso (sprained left ankle) is OUT.
• Chet Holmgren (fractured right iliac wing) is OUT.
• Ajay Mitchell (right great toe surgery) is OUT.
• Nikola Topic (left knee surgery) is OUT.
• Cason Wallace (strained right shoulder) is OUT.
• Jalen Williams (sprained right wrist) is OUT.

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (right patella tendinopathy) is OUT.
• Damian Lillard (left groin soreness) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Brook Lopez (back soreness) is QUESTIONABLE.
• Khris Middleton (bilateral ankle injury management) is OUT.
• Bobby Portis (personal reasons) is DOUBTFUL.
• Liam Robbins (G League — two-way) is OUT.
• Stanley Umude (G League — two-way) is OUT.

Series History

So far this season, the Thunder is 0-1 against the Bucks (0-0 at home, 0-0 on the road, 0-1 at neutral site). OKC has lost 2 in a row to Milwaukee.

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-15)

Milwaukee is on a 3-game losing streak, and they’re fresh off a 132-119 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies last night. Meanwhile, the Thunder bounced back from their most recent loss by rolling over the Sacramento Kings 144-110 at home on Saturday night. OKC has one of the best home records in the league, and they cover 70% of the time at home. I like the Thunder’s odds of making up for the NBA Cup loss by winning big against a tired and struggling Bucks squad, especially now that Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton are out. I managed to make my pick when the Thunder was just an 8.5-point favorite, so they may have a tougher time covering now that it’s grown to 11.5, but OKC should win this one convincingly.

Why the Game Will Hit the Over (227)

OKC’s offense is a little confusing. They’ve struggled often lately when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander goes off the floor, particularly against teams with quality bigs like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez, but Giannis is out and Lopez is questionable to play. The Thunder is still the 6th-best scoring team in the NBA, and the Bucks are the 2nd-best 3-point shooting team in the league, so I think that’s a recipe for a higher-scoring game.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	33-13	27-18-1	18-27-1
Zack	38-10	34-14	24-24
Craig	37-10	32-13-2	21-25-1