Tip-Off: 7 PM CT
Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)
Spread: Thunder (-14)
Total: 219.5
Trends Against The Spread
| Thunder | vs. | Heat |
| 34-19 (64%) | All | 21-28-2 (42%) |
| 20-8 (71%) at home | Location | 11-16-1 (40%) on the road |
| 33-18 (64%) as favorite | Status | 8-14 (36%) as underdog or pick |
| 20-8 (71%) as home favorite | Location Status | 7-9 (43%) as road underdog |
| 1-0 (100%) | Head To Head | 0-1 (0%) |
Trends Against The Total
- Oklahoma City is 28-24-1 (53%) against the over on the season.
- Miami is 27-24 (52%) against the over on the season.
- The Thunder is 17-11 (60%) against the over at home.
- The Heat are 12-16 (42%) against the over on the road.
Team Stats
| TEAM | PTS | PA | FG% | 3P% | REB | AST | TOV | STL | BLK | STRK | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 111.0 | 110.5 | 45.3 | 36.2 | 44.1 | 26.3 | 13.6 | 7.9 | 3.8 | L2 | 4-6 |
| OKC | 118.2 | 104.8 | 47.6 | 36.0 | 44.5 | 26.3 | 12.0 | 11.1 | 5.6 | W6 | 8-2 |
Injury Report
Thunder
- Ousmane Dieng (strained right soleus) is OUT.
- Chet Holmgren (rest) is OUT.
- Ajay Mitchell (sprained right great toe) is OUT.
- Nikola Topic (left knee surgery) is OUT.
- Cason Wallace (strained right shoulder) is OUT.
Heat
- Josh Christopher (G League — two-way) is OUT.
- Tyler Herro (stomach illness) is QUESTIONABLE.
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. (stomach illness) is QUESTIONABLE.
- Keshad Johnson (G League — on assignment) is OUT.
- Kevin Love (personal reasons) is OUT.
- Duncan Robinson (stomach illness) is QUESTIONABLE.
- Terry Rozier (stomach illness) is QUESTIONABLE.
- Dru Smith (left Achilles surgery) is OUT.
- Isaiah Stevens (G League — two-way) is OUT.
Series History
So far this season, the Thunder is 1-0 against the Heat (0-0 at home, 1-0 on the road). OKC has defeated Miami in 3 consecutive meetings.
Why the Thunder Will Cover (-14)
OKC is currently having one of the most dominant runs in franchise history. The Thunder has won 6 straight for the third time this season, but those wins have come with an average margin of victory of 25.8 points. 4 of the wins have been by at least 29 points. With the Miami Heat in town, the Thunder is a pretty heavy favorite yet again, but the cover still seems well within the realm of possibility. Chet Holmgren is out for rest, and Cason Wallace is still out with a strained right shoulder, but OKC is pretty healthy otherwise. Meanwhile, Miami is still adjusting to life after Jimmy Butler, and it’s not going so well. I like the Thunder’s odds of turning this one into another blowout.
Why the Game Will Hit the Over (219.5)
The Thunder has been close to 50/50 on the season on going over the point total or not, but they hit it far more often at home. Even though Miami’s offense is struggling—particularly if Tyler Herro has to miss again due to a stomach bug—I think OKC manages to score against the Heat’s top-10 defense. I’m taking the over.
Staff Picks
On the Season
| Name | Moneyline | Spread | Over/Under |
| Matt | 37-14 | 29-21-1 | 22-28-1 |
| Zack | 43-10 | 37-16 | 27-26 |
| Craig | 41-10 | 34-15-2 | 24-26-1 |
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