Oklahoma City Thunder | Thunder Back in OKC as a Near Double-Digit Favorite Over Rockets

Tip-Off: 7 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Thunder (-9.5)

Total: 228.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thundervs.Rockets
38-23 (62%)All32-28 (53%)
21-9 (70%) at homeLocation17-13 (56%) on the road
37-22 (62%) as favoriteStatus12-7 (63%) as underdog or pick
21-9 (70%) as home favoriteLocation Status9-6 (60%) as road underdog
2-1 (66%)Head To Head1-2 (33%)
  • Oklahoma City is 34-26-1 (56%) against the over on the season.
  • Houston is 31-28-1 (52%) against the over on the season.
  • The Thunder is 18-12 (60%) against the over at home.
  • The Rockets are 19-11 (63%) against the over at home

Team Stats

TEAMPTSPAFG%3P%REBASTTOVSTLBLKSTRKL10
HOU112.6108.844.634.248.122.614.08.45.1L15-5
OKC119.4106.647.836.444.726.811.910.85.7W38-2

Injury Report

Thunder

  • Chet Holmgren (sprained left ankle) is QUESTIONABLE.
  • Isaiah Joe (lower back soreness) is QUESTIONABLE.
  • Ajay Mitchell (sprained right great toe) is OUT.
  • Nikola Topic (left knee surgery) is OUT.

Rockets

  • Steven Adams (left ankle soreness) is QUESTIONABLE.
  • Dillon Brooks (right knee contusion) is QUESTIONABLE.
  • N’Faly Dante (G League — two-way) is OUT.
  • Tari Eason (left lower leg injury management) is QUESTIONABLE.
  • Jack McVeigh (G League — two-way) is OUT.
  • Alperen Sengun (lower back soreness) is QUESTIONABLE.
  • Amen Thompson (right shoulder soreness) is QUESTIONABLE.
  • Fred VanVleet (strained right ankle) is OUT.
  • Cody Zeller (not with team) is OUT.

Series History

So far this season, the Thunder is 2-1 against the Rockets (2-0 at home, 0-1 on the road).

Why the Thunder Will NOT Cover (-9.5)

There are a lot of question marks on the injury reports for both teams, but regardless of who plays, I’m anticipating a close matchup. OKC and Houston have arguably the top two defenses in the NBA, but the Thunder haven’t exactly been playing like it lately. OKC’s offense is the highest-scoring in the league since returning from the All-Star Break, but the defense is giving up a ridiculous amount of points. The Thunder’s defense is going to have to slow down Houston’s athleticism, or this is going to turn into another shootout. Either way, I’ve got OKC winning the game, but I do think the Rockets keep it to single digits.

Why the Game Will Hit the Over (228.5)

A few weeks ago, I would have hammered the under on this point total all day long, but with the way games have gone for the Thunder lately, it’s hard for me to think they’ll be able to keep this one low-scoring. OKC is averaging 133.0 points per game since the All-Star Break—well above their average—while Houston is scoring at about the same rate. Defensively, the Thunder is giving up a whopping 122.2 points in the same time frame, while the Rockets are giving up just a few points more than they normally do. All of that information adds up to the likelihood of another high-scoring game, and even if OKC gets back to their old defensive ways, this one could very easily sneak over the line.

Staff Picks

On the Season

NameMoneylineSpreadOver/Under
Matt43-1635-23-124-34-1
Zack49-1243-1830-31
Craig47-1241-16-228-30-1

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