Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Favored in Sunday Matinee with Nuggets in Town


Tip-Off
: 12 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Thunder (-7.5)

Total: 243.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thundervs.Nuggets
40-24 (62%)All31-31-1 (50%)
22-10 (68%) at homeLocation15-17 (56%) on the road
39-23 (62%) as favoriteStatus8-6 (57%) as underdog or pick
22-10 (68%) as home favoriteLocation Status6-4 (60%) as road underdog
1-1 (50%)Head To Head1-1 (50%)
  • Oklahoma City is 35-28-1 (55%) against the over on the season.
  • Denver is 37-26 (58%) against the over on the season.
  • The Thunder is 19-13 (59%) against the over at home.
  • The Nuggets are 17-15 (53%) against the over on the road.

Team Stats

TEAMPTSPAFG%3P%REBASTTOVSTLBLKSTRKL10
DEN121.5116.350.838.345.931.314.38.24.7W27-3
OKC119.4106.647.836.744.626.811.910.85.7W68-2

Injury Report

Thunder

  • Alex Ducas (G League — two-way) is OUT.
  • Isaiah Hartenstein (nasal fracture) is AVAILABLE.
  • Dillon Jones (G League — on assignment) is OUT.
  • Ajay Mitchell (sprained right great toe) is OUT.
  • Nikola Topic (left knee surgery) is OUT.

Nuggets

  • Aaron Gordon (sprained left ankle) is PROBABLE.
  • DaRon Holmes (right Achilles tendon repair) is OUT.
  • Nikola Jokic (left ankle inflammation) is PROBABLE.
  • Julian Strawther (sprained left knee) is OUT.

Series History

So far this season, the Thunder is 1-1 against the Nuggets (0-0 at home, 1-1 on the road).

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-7.5)

Oklahoma City is fresh and healthy after resting the top 6 guys on Friday night against the Trail Blazers. With a tough slate of 5 games in 8 days, beginning with the back-to-back against Denver, OKC looks to get started at full strength today. Meanwhile, Denver starters played heavy minutes in their overtime win over Phoenix on Friday, so they’re likely not quite as fresh. I’m taking the young guns to cover in this one.

Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (243.5)

Usually when two of the top offenses in the entire league meet, the over on the point total is heavily in play, but I do not think that’s the case for this matchup. While the numbers aren’t drastically different, teams do tend to score slightly less in afternoon games versus evening games, likely due to the change in their norm. I think Denver may be a bit sluggish after a long game on Friday night, and OKC’s young guys may not even be used to being up this early, so I expect a slightly lower score than what may be considered normal.

Staff Picks

On the Season

NameMoneylineSpreadOver/Under
Matt46-1638-23-127-34-1
Zack52-1245-1931-33
Craig50-1244-16-230-31-1

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