Tip-Off: 7 PM CT
Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)
Spread: Thunder (-9)
Total: 238.5
Trends Against The Spread
| Thunder | vs. | Nuggets |
| 41-24 (63%) | All | 31-32-1 (49%) |
| 23-10 (69%) at home | Location | 15-18 (45%) on the road |
| 40-23 (63%) as favorite | Status | 8-7 (53%) as underdog or pick |
| 23-10 (69%) as home favorite | Location Status | 6-5 (54%) as road underdog |
| 2-1 (66%) | Head To Head | 1-2 (33%) |
Trends Against The Total
- Oklahoma City is 35-29-1 (54%) against the over on the season.
- Denver is 37-27 (57%) against the over on the season.
- The Thunder is 19-14 (57%) against the over at home.
- The Nuggets are 17-16 (51%) against the over on the road.
Team Stats
| TEAM | PTS | PA | FG% | 3P% | REB | AST | TOV | STL | BLK | STRK | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 121.2 | 116.5 | 50.7 | 38.1 | 45.9 | 31.2 | 14.2 | 8.1 | 4.7 | L1 | 6-4 |
| OKC | 119.6 | 106.6 | 47.9 | 36.6 | 44.8 | 26.8 | 11.8 | 10.7 | 5.8 | W7 | 9-1 |
Injury Report
Thunder
- Branden Carlson (G League — two-way) is OUT.
- Alex Ducas (G League — two-way) is OUT.
- Adam Flagler (G League — two-way) is OUT.
- Isaiah Hartenstein (nasal fracture) is AVAILABLE.
- Dillon Jones is AVAILABLE.
- Ajay Mitchell (sprained right great toe) is OUT.
- Nikola Topic (left knee surgery) is OUT.
Nuggets
- Aaron Gordon (strained right calf/sprained left ankle injury management) is OUT.
- DaRon Holmes (right Achilles tendon repair) is OUT.
- Nikola Jokic (left ankle impingement inflammation/right elbow contusion) is QUESTIONABLE.
- Jamal Murray (left knee inflammation) is QUESTIONABLE.
- Zeke Nnaji (sprained left ankle) is PROBABLE.
- Julian Strawther (sprained left knee) is OUT.
Series History
So far this season, the Thunder is 2-1 against the Nuggets (1-0 at home, 1-1 on the road).
Why the Thunder Will Cover (-9)
OKC entered yesterday afternoon’s matchup with Denver as the better-rested team, but the Thunder didn’t come out with much energy early. It was actually the Nuggets that looked more prepared and ready to go. As the game progressed, though, OKC managed to lock in a bit more, and by the final quarter, Denver was seemingly out of breath as the Thunder turned up the defense and started knocking down timely shots on defense. OKC’s youth will benefit them in tonight’s SEGABABA, so they should be able to win yet again. If Denver sits anyone extra, which is probable, then I see OKC beat the Nuggets by double digits for the third time this season.
Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (238.5)
The point total isn’t quite as high as it was for yesterday’s game, but it’s still too high for me. OKC’s defense has been especially locked in for 3 consecutive games, and while Denver will naturally make some adjustments for today’s matchup, I still see the Thunder making it difficult for the Nuggets to score, resulting in a lower final score.
Staff Picks
On the Season
| Name | Moneyline | Spread | Over/Under |
| Matt | 47-16 | 39-23-1 | 27-35-1 |
| Zack | 53-12 | 46-19 | 32-33 |
| Craig | 51-12 | 45-16-2 | 31-31-1 |