Tip-Off: 8 PM CT
Location: Fiserv Forum (Milwaukee, Wisconsin)
Spread: Thunder (-4.5)
Total: 231.5
Trends Against The Spread
| Thunder | at | Bucks |
| 43-25 (63%) | All | 32-34-1 (48%) |
| 20-14 (58)%) on the road | Location | 19-15-1 (55%) at home |
| 41-24 (63%) as favorite | Status | 9-10 (47%) as underdog |
| 18-13 (58%) as road favorite | Location Status | 3-3 (50%) as home underdog |
| 1-1 (50%) | Head To Head | 1-1 (50%) |
Trends Against The Total
- Oklahoma City is 37-30-1 (55%) against the over on the season.
- Milwaukee is 34-32-1 (51%) against the over on the season.
- The Thunder is 17-16-1 (51%) against the over on the road.
- The Bucks are 19-15-1 (55%) against the over at home.
Team Stats
| TEAM | PTS | PA | FG% | 3P% | REB | AST | TOV | STL | BLK | STRK | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 119.6 | 107.2 | 47.9 | 36.6 | 44.7 | 26.6 | 11.9 | 10.6 | 5.8 | W2 | 9-1 |
| MIL | 114.9 | 112.5 | 48.3 | 38.4 | 44.3 | 25.3 | 13.8 | 7.3 | 4.8 | W2 | 6-4 |
Injury Report
Thunder
- Branden Carlson (G League — two-way) is OUT.
- Ousmane Dieng (strained left calf) is OUT.
- Luguentz Dort (right hip soreness) is OUT.
- Alex Ducas (G League — two-way) is OUT.
- Isaiah Hartenstein (nasal fracture) is AVAILABLE.
- Ajay Mitchell (sprained right great toe) is OUT.
- Nikola Topic (left knee surgery) is OUT.
- Aaron Wiggins (illness) is QUESTIONABLE.
- Jalen Williams (strained right hip) is OUT.
Bucks
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (right knee tendinopathy) is PROBABLE.
- Kyle Kuzma (non-covid illness) is QUESTIONABLE.
- Damian Lillard (right groin soreness) is PROBABLE.
- Bobby Portis (suspension) is OUT.
- Jericho Sims (sprained right thumb) is QUESTIONABLE.
Series History
So far this season, the Thunder is 1-1 against the Milwaukee Bucks (1-0 at home, 0-0 on the road, 0-1 at neutral site in Las Vegas for NBA Cup Final).
Why the Thunder Will Cover (-4.5)
A lot of people look back at the Thunder’s loss in the NBA Cup Final to the Milwaukee Bucks as an indicator that OKC will not be able to succeed in the postseason. Let’s ignore the fact that OKC wasn’t even healthy at the time. With that in mind, it almost feels like the Thunder might have a little more edge than normal going into this one, and despite some key guys like Jalen Williams and Luguentz Dort likely sitting this one out, I’m taking Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and OKC to win on the road and cover the spread.
Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (231)
Neither meeting so far this season has gotten close to this point total, and while this one will likely be more balanced than either of the lopsided games prior, I think both the Thunder and the Bucks will need defense more than offense to pull this one out. Both are playing in the second game of a back-to-back, so the defense could be a little lazy at times, but I’m still taking the under.
Staff Picks
On the Season
| Name | Moneyline | Spread | Over/Under |
| Matt | 48-17 | 40-24-1 | 29-36-1 |
| Zack | 55-13 | 48-20 | 34-34 |
| Craig | 52-14 | 47-17-2 | 32-33-1 |
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