Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Nearly a Double-Digit Favorite for Game 1 Against Nuggets

Tip-Off: 8:30 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Thunder (-9.5)

Total: 225.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	vs.	Nuggets
58-29 (66%)	All	41-46-2 (47%)
32-12 (72%) at home	Location	21-22-1 (48%) on the road
56-28 (66%) as favorite	Status	13-11-1 (54%) as underdog
32-12 (72%) as home favorite	Location Status	10-8-1 (55%) as road underdog
2-2 (50%)	Head To Head	2-2 (50%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 46-40-1 (53%) against the over on the season.
• Denver is 52-37 (58%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 25-19 (56%) against the over at home.
• The Nuggets are 24-20 (54%) against the over at home.

Team Stats (Playoffs)

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
DEN	107.7	108.3	48.2	38.9	43.3	24.6	13.9	7.7	3.9	W1	4-3
OKC	120.0	105.5	45.7	31.3	46.3	25.8	10.5	10.8	6.8	W4	4-0

Injury Report

Thunder

• Nikola Topic (left knee surgery) is OUT.

Nuggets

• DaRon Holmes II (right Achilles tendon repair) is OUT.

Series History

The Thunder went 2-2 against the Nuggets in the regular season (1-1 at home, 1-1 on the road).

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-9.5)

OKC and Denver had two very different first-round experiences, so they may have different experiences to start the second round. The Thunder are a heavy favorite; part of that is due to over a week of rest. Meanwhile, the Nuggets just wrapped up their series on Saturday night. I think OKC’s rest is enough to make them a favorite, but the Thunder should win this series anyway. I’m expecting a close one tonight through three quarters, but OKC’s depth should allow them to pull away late, securing a double-digit victory.

Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (225.5)

The Nuggets struggled to score consistently in the first round against the LA Clippers, and while a couple of the regular-season meetings between these two teams turned into shootouts, I expect the defense to be turned up for the playoffs. As a result, I don’t anticipate as much scoring, particularly if OKC is able to slow down Nikola Jokic.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	65-19	53-30-1	39-45-1
Zack	72-15	61-26	45-42
Craig	69-16	60-23-2	43-41-1