Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Favored in Game 4 Despite Trailing Nuggets 2-1 in Series

Tip-Off: 2:30 PM CT

Location: Ball Arena (Denver, Colorado)

Spread: Thunder (-6)

Total: 227.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	at	Nuggets
59-31 (65%)	All	43-47-2 (47%)
26-18 (59%) on the road	Location	21-24-1 (46%) at home
57-30 (65%) as favorite	Status	15-12-1 (55%) as underdog
24-17 (58%) as road favorite	Location Status	4-3 (57%) as road underdog
3-4 (42%)	Head To Head	4-3 (57%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 48-41-1 (53%) against the over on the season.
• Denver is 54-38 (58%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 21-22-1 (48%) against the over on the road.
• The Nuggets are 28-18 (60%) against the over at home.

Team Stats (Playoffs)

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
OKC	121.7	106.0	45.4	32.9	46.6	26.4	10.1	10.6	7.4	L1	5-2
DEN	109.4	113.0	46.5	38.5	45.3	23.3	15.2	7.3	4.5	W1	5-4

Injury Report

Thunder

• Nikola Topic (left knee surgery) is OUT.

Nuggets

• DaRon Holmes II (right Achilles tendon repair) is OUT.

Series History

OKC trails Denver 1-2 in the Western Conference Semifinals (1-1 at home, 0-1 on the road). The Thunder went 2-2 against the Nuggets in the regular season (1-1 at home, 1-1 on the road).

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-6)

OKC fell apart late in Game 3—similar to Game 1—but they have done great at rebounding from shortcomings all season long. While I don’t expect a Game 2-type performance, I think the Thunder comes out with a great sense of urgency, highlighted by a much better performance from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, leading to a double-digit victory.

Why the Game Will Hit the Over (227.5)

Neither team had a great offensive performance in Game 3, but I expect a much better offensive outing for the Thunder, and I highly doubt Nikola Jokic plays as poorly as he did on Friday. The point total might be close, but I think it edges over.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	67-20	55-31-1	41-46-1
Zack	73-17	62-28	46-44
Craig	70-18	62-24-2	45-42-1