Tip-Off: 8:30 PM CT
Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)
Spread: Thunder (-10.5)
Total: 221
Trends Against The Spread
| Thunder | vs. | Nuggets |
| 59-33 (64%) | All | 44-47-2 (48%) |
| 33-13 (71%) at home | Location | 22-23-1 (48%) on the road |
| 57-31 (64%) as favorite | Status | 16-12-1 (57%) as underdog |
| 33-13 (71%) as home favorite | Location Status | 11-9-1 (55%) as road underdog |
| 3-5 (37%) | Head To Head | 5-3 (62%) |
Trends Against The Total
- Oklahoma City is 48-42-1 (53%) against the over on the season.
- Denver is 54-39 (58%) against the over on the season.
- The Thunder is 27-19 (58%) against the over at home.
- The Nuggets are 26-20 (56%) against the over on the road.
Team Stats (Playoffs)
| TEAM | PTS | PA | FG% | 3P% | REB | AST | TOV | STL | BLK | STRK | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 121.7 | 106.0 | 45.4 | 32.9 | 46.6 | 26.4 | 10.1 | 10.6 | 7.4 | L1 | 5-2 |
| OKC | 109.4 | 113.0 | 46.5 | 38.5 | 45.3 | 23.3 | 15.2 | 7.3 | 4.5 | W1 | 5-4 |
Injury Report
Thunder
- Nikola Topic (left knee surgery) is OUT.
Nuggets
- DaRon Holmes II (right Achilles tendon repair) is OUT.
- Hunter Tyson (sprained ankle) is OUT.
Series History
OKC is tied with Denver 2-2 in the Western Conference Semifinals (1-1 at home, 1-1 on the road). The Thunder went 2-2 against the Nuggets in the regular season (1-1 at home, 1-1 on the road).
Why the Thunder Will Cover (-10.5)
The Thunder has one good shooting outing through 8 playoff games so far, and they’re due for another one. With the series all tied up at 2-2, dropping Game 5 with the series headed back to Denver for Game 6 would be devastating, so I think OKC comes out firing on all cylinders for the home crowd. I fully anticipate a double-digit victory.
Why the Game Will Hit the Over (221)
OKC’s offense has stalled far too often in this series, but they have been better at home. The Nuggets are also coming off a pretty gross offensive game. I think both teams figure out a way to score some points, but particularly because I see the Thunder winning this one big, I’m taking the over on the point total.
Staff Picks
On the Season
| Name | Moneyline | Spread | Over/Under |
| Matt | 68-20 | 56-31-1 | 41-47-1 |
| Zack | 74-17 | 62-29 | 46-45 |
| Craig | 71-18 | 62-25-2 | 45-43-1 |