Thunder Against the Spread | With the Series All Tied Up, OKC is a Double-Digit Home Favorite Over the Nuggets for Game 5

Tip-Off: 8:30 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Thunder (-10.5)

Total: 221

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	vs.	Nuggets
59-33 (64%)	All	44-47-2 (48%)
33-13 (71%) at home	Location	22-23-1 (48%) on the road
57-31 (64%) as favorite	Status	16-12-1 (57%) as underdog
33-13 (71%) as home favorite	Location Status	11-9-1 (55%) as road underdog
3-5 (37%)	Head To Head	5-3 (62%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 48-42-1 (53%) against the over on the season.
• Denver is 54-39 (58%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 27-19 (58%) against the over at home.
• The Nuggets are 26-20 (56%) against the over on the road.

Team Stats (Playoffs)

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
DEN	121.7	106.0	45.4	32.9	46.6	26.4	10.1	10.6	7.4	L1	5-2
OKC	109.4	113.0	46.5	38.5	45.3	23.3	15.2	7.3	4.5	W1	5-4

Injury Report

Thunder

• Nikola Topic (left knee surgery) is OUT.

Nuggets

• DaRon Holmes II (right Achilles tendon repair) is OUT.
• Hunter Tyson (sprained ankle) is OUT.

Series History

OKC is tied with Denver 2-2 in the Western Conference Semifinals (1-1 at home, 1-1 on the road). The Thunder went 2-2 against the Nuggets in the regular season (1-1 at home, 1-1 on the road).

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-10.5)

The Thunder has one good shooting outing through 8 playoff games so far, and they’re due for another one. With the series all tied up at 2-2, dropping Game 5 with the series headed back to Denver for Game 6 would be devastating, so I think OKC comes out firing on all cylinders for the home crowd. I fully anticipate a double-digit victory.

Why the Game Will Hit the Over (221)

OKC’s offense has stalled far too often in this series, but they have been better at home. The Nuggets are also coming off a pretty gross offensive game. I think both teams figure out a way to score some points, but particularly because I see the Thunder winning this one big, I’m taking the over on the point total.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	68-20	56-31-1	41-47-1
Zack	74-17	62-29	46-45
Craig	71-18	62-25-2	45-43-1