Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Looks to Close Out Series as Road Favorite Over Nuggets in Game 6

Tip-Off: 7:30 PM CT

Location: Ball Arena (Denver, Colorado)

Spread: Thunder (-4.5)

Total: 216.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	at	Nuggets
59-33 (64%)	All	45-47-2 (48%)
26-19 (57%) on the road	Location	22-24-1 (47%) at home
57-32 (64%) as favorite	Status	17-12-1 (58%) as underdog
24-18 (57%) as road favorite	Location Status	5-3 (62%) as home underdog
3-6 (33%)	Head To Head	6-3 (66%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 48-43-1 (52%) against the over on the season.
• Denver is 54-40 (57%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 21-23-1 (47%) against the over on the road.
• The Nuggets are 28-19 (59%) against the over at home.

Team Stats (Playoffs)

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
OKC	117.3	103.7	44.9	32.6	47.1	25.3	11.0	10.0	6.7	W2	6-2
DEN	107.2	11.2	44.9	35.7	45.9	22.5	15.2	7.7	4.3	W1	5-5

Injury Report

Thunder

• Nikola Topic (left knee surgery) is OUT.

Nuggets

• DaRon Holmes II (right Achilles tendon repair) is OUT.
• Hunter Tyson (sprained right ankle) is OUT.

Series History

OKC leads Denver 3-2 in the Western Conference Semifinals (2-1 at home, 1-1 on the road). The Thunder went 2-2 against the Nuggets in the regular season (1-1 at home, 1-1 on the road).

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-4.5)

The Oklahoma City Thunder closed out Game 5 in even stronger fashion than they did in Game 4. They’re primed to close out the series, but it’s not going to be easy. Nikola Jokic had his best game of the playoffs in Game 5, but the Nuggets were still unable to pull out the win. OKC’s depth proved once again to outperform Denver, and I see this one going down to the wire with the Thunder covering the spread late with some clutch free throws.

Why the Game Will Hit the Over (216.5)

Only one of the five games played so far has gone under this point total, and while tired legs could mean more missed shots, it could also impact defensive effort. It might be close, but I think this one goes over.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	69-20	56-32-1	41-48-1
Zack	75-17	62-30	46-46
Craig	72-18	62-26-2	46-43-1