Tip-Off: 7:30 PM CT
Location: Target Center (Minneapolis, Minnesota)
Spread: Thunder (-2.5)
Total: 218
Trends Against The Spread
| Thunder | at | Timberwolves |
| 62-34 (64%) | All | 46-47-1 (49%) |
| 26-20 (56%) on the road | Location | 21-24-1 (46%) at home |
| 60-33 (64%) as favorite | Status | 14-10 (60%) as underdog |
| 24-19 (55%) as road favorite | Location Status | 3-2 (60%) as home underdog |
| 3-3 (50%) | Head To Head | 3-3 (50%) |
Trends Against The Total
- Oklahoma City is 51-44-1 (53%) against the over on the season.
- Minnesota is 51-43 (54%) against the over on the season.
- The Thunder is 22-23-1 (48%) against the over on the road.
- The Timberwolves are 29-17 (63%) against the over at home.
Team Stats (Playoffs)
| TEAM | PTS | PA | FG% | 3P% | REB | AST | TOV | STL | BLK | STRK | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 116.9 | 102.8 | 46.1 | 32.5 | 45.8 | 26.0 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 5.6 | W3 | 7-3 |
| MIN | 106.1 | 103.6 | 45.1 | 33.8 | 41.9 | 23.9 | 15.1 | 7.3 | 4.9 | L2 | 7-3 |
Injury Report
Thunder
- Nikola Topic (left knee surgery) is OUT.
Timberwolves
- NONE
Series History
OKC leads Minnesota 2-0 in the Western Conference Finals (2-0 at home, 0-0 on the road). The Thunder went 2-2 against the Nuggets in the regular season (1-1 at home, 1-1 on the road).
Why the Thunder Will Cover (-2.5)
Based on the last two games, a spread this small seems like a given. BUT, this is Game 3, not Games 1 and 2. The Thunder just needs to win the game to cover this spread, and while the odds are certainly in OKC’s favor to win the series, that doesn’t mean they’re going to sweep the Timberwolves. Still, I can’t help but think Oklahoma City will win this one a day after Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was named to his third consecutive All-NBA First-Team and Jalen Williams to his first All-NBA Third Team.
Why the Game Will NOT Hit the Over (218)
This is the highest total so far in the series, and while it hit in Game 2, I don’t think OKC’s defense is all of a sudden going to fold and start giving up points. Minnesota will undoubtedly play with a little extra energy in front of the home crowd, but I’d bet on a defensive battle for this one, so I’m taking the under.
Staff Picks
On the Season
| Name | Moneyline | Spread | Over/Under |
| Matt | 72-21 | 58-34-1 | 43-50-1 |
| Zack | 78-18 | 64-32 | 49-47 |
| Craig | 75-19 | 65-27-2 | 48-45-1 |
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