Thunder Against the Spread | OKC Enters Pivotal Game 5 Against Pacers as Heavy Home Favorite

Tip-Off: 7:30 PM CT

Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Spread: Thunder (-9.5)

Total: 223.5

Trends Against The Spread

Thunder	vs.	Pacers
65-38 (63%)	All	51-50-1 (50%)
38-15 (71%) at home	Location	26-26 (50%) on the road
63-37 (63%) as favorite	Status	27-20 (57%) as underdog
38-15 (71%) as home favorite	Location Status	19-13 (59%) as road underdog
4-2 (66%)	Head To Head	2-4 (33%)

Trends Against The Total

• Oklahoma City is 54-48-1 (52%) against the over on the season.
• Indiana is 54-47-1 (53%) against the over on the season.
• The Thunder is 30-23 (56%) against the over at home.
• The Pacers are 28-23-1 (54%) against the over on the road.

Team Stats (Playoffs)

TEAM	PTS	PA	FG%	3P%	REB	AST	TOV	STL	BLK	STRK	L10
IND	115.8	113.1	49.2	39.3	39.7	27.3	13.7	7.7	5.9	L1	6-4
OKC	116.2	106.9	46.2	34.0	43.8	23.5	12.2	10.7	5.3	W1	7-3

Injury Report

Thunder

• Nikola Topic (left knee surgery) is OUT.

Pacers

• Isaiah Jackson (torn right Achilles tendon) is OUT.
• Jarace Walker (sprained right ankle) is OUT.

Series History

OKC trails Indiana 2-1 in the NBA Finals (1-1 at home, 0-1 on the road). The Thunder went 2-0 against the Pacers in the regular season (1-0 at home, 1-0 on the road).

Why the Thunder Will Cover (-9.5)

Midway through the fourth quarter of Game 4 of the Finals, the Thunder looked all but headed towards a 3-1 deficit. The Pacers’ shooting cooled off, OKC made several hustle plays and key stops, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander took over to lead the Thunder to victory and a tied series. Game 5 will likely decide the outcome of the series, and after OKC snatched momentum at the end of Game 4, I think that, plus home-court advantage, is enough to help the Thunder not just win the game, but win it big.

Why the Game Will Hit the Over (223.5)

Game 4 was decided because of defense, and while that will likely be the case in Game 5, I still think this line hits the over because I expect OKC’s offense to rebound in a big way with a big win, which means a lot of poitns.

Staff Picks

On the Season

Name	Moneyline	Spread	Over/Under
Matt	76-24	61-37-1	48-52-1
Zack	82-21	67-36	51-52
Craig	79-22	69-30-2	53-47-1